Thirty more hours of production in 2007 and Brazilian automakers would have hit the 3m units mark for the first time.
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The domestic market also posted a historic sales record: almost 2.5m vehicles last year. The official statistics were announced by industry group Anfavea earlier this week.
Exports (excluding agricultural machinery) climbed 8% in US dollar terms to almost $US11bn. The only sizeable slump was for CKD vehicle kits exported (off 25%), and that actually helped automakers meet strong local demand by diverting the parts to local production. CBU shipments remained unchanged at 630,000 units.
Anfavea maintained the excellent forecast for 2008: 17% local market growth over last year’s very high comparative base. 2007 domestic sales were up 28% over 2006’s, a rate superior to China. The production forecast for this year is a 9% rise.
Judging by the daily production numbers in the last months of 2007, the days of excess capacity are practically over, hence the avalanche of recently announced investments.
According to Brazil’s department of industry, trade and development, the automotive chain as a whole should invest $38bn in five years (2007-2011) to reach the desired production numbers. The government foresees a production capacity of 5m units yearly at the end of the period, which should be enough meet increasing domestic and foreign demands.
Not even the recent rise in financial operations tax, in instalments, should disturb the scenario, according to Anfavea.
“We are not being optimists, but realists,” the president of the manufacturers association, Jackson Schneider, told just-auto.
Imports will continue to grow (88% in 2007, 44% in 2008), but with little impact on the waiting list for many models, analysts expect.
In any case, Brazilians seem quite happy to order a vehicle and wait some time for it (30 days on average).
All the new investment should shorten the time between a model being launched overseas and going into production here, reducing the styling and technical gap that frustrates some consumers.
The ranking for car and light commercial sales (95% of total) remained unchanged amongst the old guard – those who’ve been in Brazil for years: Fiat, 25.9%; VW, 22.9%; GM, 21.3% and Ford, 10.5% (the biggest share loser, down from 12% in 2006).
Including trucks and buses, VW narrowed Fiat’s lead to 1.5 percentage points, thanks to the Italian group’s Iveco sales.
The battle among the relative newcomers heightened sharply in 2007 (none is in the heavy commercial sector). Citroën took 2.1%, Toyota and Renault (practically a tie) reached 3.1%, Peugeot 3.4% and Honda, 3.7%. All the rest, including imports with no manufacturing here, took a 4.0% share.
Peugeot-Citroën was the first group among the newcomers to break the 100,000 units sold barrier, shifting some 127,000 vehicles last year.
Fernando Calmon
