Fenabrave, Brazil’s national association of motor vehicle distributors, representing nearly 8,000 dealers (including those handling motorcycles, heavy trucks, semi-trailers and bus bodies), has said 2015 sales are off to a bad start and has painted a discouraging scenario for the remainder of 2015.
Some 4,500 Fenabrave members deal in cars and light commercials. The lobby group said February sales were the worst since 2008 due to low economic activity combined with escalating inflation, credit-limiting high interest rates, high household debt and a loss of buyer confidence.
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February sales were also hit because there were fewer selling days than on 2014 (just 17) due to the Mardi Gras holidays which bring Brazil commerce to all but a standstill. In 2014 this occurred in March.
Car and light commercial sales were the worst for a February in eight years: 178,822 units compared with 243,895 in January, a 26.7% month on month plunge.
Compared with February 2014 (245,904 units), the fall was an even steeper 27.3%, year on year. In the first two months of 2015, sales have slumped 22.5% year on year.
As for heavy trucks, February’s results suggest 2015 sales will see drop at the sharpest rate for 20 years – the decade’s worst if the downward trend in the first two months continues.
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By GlobalDataThese gloomy results have already prompted Fenabrave to start reviewing its 2015 full year forecasts.
According to president Alarico Assumpção Jr, in view of the atypical February, the lobby group will announce new predictions after results for the first quarter are in by early April.
For now, both car and light commercial sales combined are seen retracting by at least 10% in 2015 to 2,995,886 units.
Sales of trucks and buses are expected to fall as low as 151,977 new registrations, just over 10% under the 2014 tally.
Coincidentally, manufacturers association Anfavea is also said to be holding off for the first quarter results to review its own 2015 forecast downwards, citing the same economic and market factors as Fenabrave.
The dealer’s association’s monthly sales data is usually three working days ahaead of Anfavea’s which is far more complex and counts unit production, exports and plant employees among other statistics.
