ACEA has released EU car market numbers for September that show a modest gain versus last year.
EU car sales in September reached 1,231,147 units, 0.6% ahead of last year. While the German car market continued to show growth in September, there were sizeable market declines elsewhere. The ACEA numbers confirm those released earlier this month by JD Power.
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Over the first three quarters, car sales were were 1.1% down on the same period of last year, according to ACEA.
However, analysts remain concerned over the outlook for car sales in Europe against the background of the eurozone’s continuing debt crisis, deteriorating confidence and weaker economic projections.
JD Power Automotive Forecasting analyst Jonathon Poskitt told just-auto today that he has just run through a new forecast for the West European car market based on weaker estimates for economic growth next year.
“Economic growth projections are being revised down as the eurozone’s crisis rumbles on and considerable uncertainty persists,” he says. “And that is leading to businesses becoming much more cautious with all the adverse consequences that follow for consumer sentiment and, of course, for the car market.”
Poskitt said that the latest JD Power forecast for the West European car market has been revised down to 12.52m units, almost 2% lower than 2011’s estimated 12.77m.
JD Power’s latest assessment is based on a ‘low-growth’ scenario for Europe’s economy. However, he also warned that if the eurozone crisis were to worsen with the European economy going back into recession, the car market could fall much further.
“If there were to be disorderly national debt defaults, the crisis spreading and the financial sector being heavily impacted, the European economy would clearly be in even worse shape,” he says. “In that scenario, a GDP contraction of 2% in Europe could see the West European car market fall back to nearer 11m units. That’s where the running rate had declined to before the support from scrappage incentives came in in 2009.”
See also: UK: Western Europe’s car sales edged up in September, but there’s little cheer
