A secret report prepared for a state government has said the Australian car manufacturing industry is doomed.
“The Australian car manufacturing industry is officially on death row — and governments know it but are continuing with their facade to try and save it,” local website carsguide.com.au said in a report.
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The website said a top secret document – leaked to the Adelaide Advertiser – prepared independently for the South Australia government using information supplied by Holden had found “our key working assumption is that manufacturing/assembly of mass market vehicle platforms at GMH (General Motors-Holden) is not sustainable”.
The briefing prepared by University of Adelaide professor Goran Roos had revealed “it is therefore likely that vehicle assembly will eventually cease: 2016 being the earliest likely date”.
The report also explored the possibility of a Holden factory shutdown in 2018 and 2022 but these scenarios were much less likely.
A 2016 end date would put Holden’s Elizabeth factory shutdown in South Australia in the same year as Ford’s factory closures in Broadmeadows and Geelong in Victoria.
If Holden goes, well-placed Toyota insiders say the Japanese maker will almost certainly follow in 2017 — the end of the current Camry model cycle.
Toyota’s Altona factory near Melbourne is facing the same highly optimistic cost reduction targets of A$3,800 per vehicle or $400m per year.
“If Holden were to close, then the (parts) supply chain would start to fail and this, in turn, may well lead to Toyota ceasing Australian operations,” the report said.
“Only 30% of Tier 1 suppliers would survive the closure of GMH and Toyota.”
The report also considers Holden and Ford future model options.
