Most vehicle manufacturers, including premium manufacturers, will be able to meet an average limit of 120g CO2 emissions per kilometre by 2012 through hybridisation, according to Frost & Sullivan senior research analyst Vijayendra R Rao.
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The only manufacturer, which will struggle to meet the requirement by 2012 is BMW, Rao says.
Most manufacturers have strategies to start bringing out hybrids this year or next year, but their approaches vary. Porsche and Audi, for example, have been developing full hybrid technology for five to eight years, and will follow the success of the Lexus RX400h, which has managed to position itself as a performance vehicle, despite its hybrid technology. An Audi Q7 hybrid concept was shown at Frankfurt last year and a production version is expected to be launched next year. A Porsche Cayenne hybrid is expected around the same time.
BMW, however, has only recently started to develop hybrid technology. It is planning to to introduce micro hybrid (similar to the stop-start technology in the Citroen C2 and C3) technology this year or next year, but it will not introduce mild hybrid (as Honda Accord, Insight) or full hybrid (as Toyota Prius, Lexus RX400h) until at least 2010, preferring to take its time to find the right solution.
As a result Rao is forecasting that BMW will only be able to achieve around 140-145g/km corporate average CO2 emissions by 2012.
DaimlerChrysler’s strategy is also somewhat risky. It is introducing micro hybrid technology on the A-Class in the near future, and mild hybrid technology on the C-Class. Beyond that its strategy is not clear, and it too may struggle to meet 2012 requirements.
Other manufacturers will not have a problem, according to Rao. By 2010 all manufacturers will be hybridising, although much of this will be micro hybrids, which allow for a 8-12g reduction in CO2 emissions per kilometre. For a more substantial reduction (35-40g/km), manufacturers will need to develop full hybrid technology and/or series (GM Volt concept) and plug-in (Saturn Vue) technology.
“Plug-in technology will really work in Europe as well as the US. “With a back-up gasoline engine manufacturers now believe that a hybrid car can be performance-oriented,” said Rao. Concern about ‘performance’ is one of the main reasons that manufacturers have not downsized engines to come closer to meeting voluntary CO2 reduction requirements. However, by using the electric motor for city driving, and saving the gasoline engine for the highway, manufacturers do not have to compromise on performance.
The main technology hindering plug-ins at present is the lithium-ion battery. “We feel that by 2008 there will be a substantial amount of cost reduction and technology advancement and that will make lithium-ion technology fully viable,” said Rao.
So will the introduction of CO2 limits damage the automotive industry, particularly the German automotive industry where much of Europe’s premium car manufacturing is housed? Probably not, said Rao. BMW and DaimlerChrysler may struggle to develop appropriate technology in time, but on balance the introduction of hybrids is a huge opportunity to add value. Bear in mind that hybrid electric motors will be additional to gasoline/diesel engines, and supplement existing manufacturing and performance. Suppliers, which own the hybrid technology, particularly, stand to benefit.
Susan Brown
See also: GERMANY: German car bosses sound warning on CO2 limits
