ASEAN Light Vehicle (LV) sales increased by 6% YoY in April, with growth seen across the region except for in the Philippines. As such, ASEAN volumes improved from a 2% YoY expansion in Q1 2025 to 3% YoY in January-April.
LV sales in the Philippines fell by 7% YoY in April, despite the Manila International Auto Show (MIAS) taking place during the month which reportedly recorded the highest number of attendees and companies launching models at the event. The country’s weaker performance was likely due to a) the upcoming school year enrolment leading consumers to delay new vehicle purchases; and b) certain new models and/or booking orders from the event being delivered later. However, in terms of YTD sales, the growth rate remained positive at 6% YoY.
Although the April result was weaker than expected, the 2025 outlook for the Philippines remains unchanged at 492k units, since orders and deliveries during the MIAS event could be delayed for a month. A further key development in this report is that the government is set to cancel the tax exemption on Pickups in order to increase government revenue under the proposed Capital Market Efficiency Promotion Act (CMEPA). The tax rate on Pickups will be between 4-50% depending on the price—therefore, we anticipate that consumers will rush to make Pickup purchases before the policy is implemented. It is important to note that Pickups have been exempt from taxes since 2018 under former President Duterte’s Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) law.
Vietnam’s LV demand has continued to rise and increased by 35% YoY in April, which contributed to a YTD expansion of 48% YoY. This strong demand was bolstered by economic growth—GDP remained robust in Q1 2025 and rose by 6.9% YoY, while investments also grew by 7.2% YoY. Additionally, the government has extended the exemption of the registration fee for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) until February 2027, having initially set the expiration date for February 2025. Since April volumes aligned with our expectations, the sales projection for Vietnam remains unchanged at 521k units in 2025.
Thailand’s LV sales returned to positive territory, albeit with a modest growth rate of 0.6% in April. This increase was primarily fueled by demand in the Passenger Vehicle (PV) segment, particularly for BEVs and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs). However, the Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) segment experienced a significant decline, dropping by 19% YoY due to a sluggish Pickup Truck market.
Recent forecasts from Oxford Economics (OE) have further downgraded Thailand’s GDP growth projection for 2025 to 1.9%, down from 2.3% just a month ago and 2.5% prior to the recent geopolitical developments surrounding US President Trump’s liberation day. Despite these challenges, we maintain the country’s 2025 LV sales outlook at 556k units, reflecting a 2% decline YoY. However, the projection appears increasingly precarious due to ongoing political tensions and recent conflicts along the Thai-Cambodia border.
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By GlobalDataMalaysia’s April sales rose by 4% YoY, largely driven by national brand, Proton, and new Chinese entrant, Jaecoo. Based on recent information, volumes in the country were estimated to have marginally fallen by 0.4% YoY to 70k units in May, although this marked a surge of 14% MoM, and was the second highest monthly total of the year so far. The impressive rebound was mainly attributed to accelerations of Perodua and Honda. As such, May’s performance was stronger than expected, and we have subsequently increased the 2025 outlook to 790k units, from 772k units previously. However, this still represents a 3% YoY drop from the 817k units recorded in 2024.
Indonesia’s LV sales increased by 8% YoY in April, predominantly due to new Chinese players including BYD, Chery, Denza, Geely and Aion. As these brands—except for Chery— only offer BEV models, it implies that the stronger performance came courtesy of early BEV adopters. However, the recent GAIKINDO report indicated that the LV market plunged by 14% YoY in May, owing to softer consumer purchasing power and cloudy economic conditions.
As such, we have lowered Indonesia’s sales outlook through the long term, due to a) May sales being weaker than expected due to declining commodity prices and increasing global tension; and b) the local media reporting that vehicle prices rose by an average of 7.5% per year while the income of the middle class grew by only 3-3.5% per year, hindering the demographic’s ability to afford a new vehicle. As a result, Indonesia’s LV sales are now projected at 748k units in 2025 and will not return to the 1.0 million unit level until 2029.
Combining these developments, the overall ASEAN sales outlook remains unchanged at 3.11 million units in 2025, which is a slight drop from 3.12 million units in 2024. However, downside risks remain, and there is the potential for the market to drop below 3.0 million units due to global trade uncertainty and conflict in the Middle East.
This article was first published on GlobalData’s dedicated research platform, the Automotive Intelligence Center.
