After nine years of production at Setúbal, the VW Eos is dead. Like the Peugeot 308 CC and others in its class, it won’t be replaced, the success of crossovers being the main reason.
Vehicles sales might be still surging month-by-month for over three years now, but even British buyers have gone luke warm on the idea of convertibles. That spells big trouble for lots of models and manufacturers, as this market is one of the world’s largest for open cars. The Lexus IS C was not replaced, the BMW Z4 is now a rare sight here and in other countries, and sales of the Porsche Boxster and 911 have also been falling worldwide. So it’s not just in the affordable segments where crossovers rule at the expense of cabrios.
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Due of course to pollution in China’s cities, and chaotic traffic conditions in the larger Indian metropolises, buyers in those countries are not much interested in any form of convertible, even ones with folding metal tops. It will be fascinating to see whether or not JLR offers the forthcoming Range Rover Evoque Cabrio in either market. Production volumes for this car will be small, its raison d’etre being to draw potential buyers of the hatchbacks to Land Rover’s configurator. The three- and five-door Evoques might have just been facelifted but both bodystyles are now aged and under attack by several similarly pricey competitors. The most successful ones are the Porsche Macan and BMW X4. Mercedes-Benz will reveal its new GLC-Class this Wednesday (17 June) and a new Audi Q5 is coming next year, which will only mean more pressure on cars such as the A3 and A5 Cabrios as well as the TT convertible.
BMW Group will have thought long and hard about replacing the Mini Cabriolet but it will do so, even though the Mini Roadster was discontinued a few months back, low demand being the reason for its demise. You also wonder how much longer Opel-Vauxhall will continue with the Cascada, should the new-for-2016 Buick derivative fail to find enough buyers in the US and Canada. Holden’s version has just been launched in Australia but it’s unlikely to do well: most parts of the country, with the exception of the small Tasmanian market, are too hot and/or humid for an open car between August and May.
Volkswagen’s Portuguese plant begins to look a bit endangered, what with the Scirocco fading out as it reaches the end of a seven year lifecycle, and the VW Sharan and SEAT Alhambra twins also being victims of the success of SUVs and crossovers. Setúbal, or Autoeuropa to give it its official name, will probably do OK during the second half of this year thanks to sales boosts for the MPVs, each of which has just gained new engines and a mid-cycle facelift. But after that? The next generation Sharan and Alhambra are not due until 2018 so 2017 might be a tough year. Will a Scirocco replacement really be able to generate enough volume to keep this geographically isolated production site viable?
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