Sales Summary
According to preliminary estimates, US Light Vehicle (LV) sales grew by 7.3% YoY in July, to 1.39 million units. July 2025 had one additional selling day as compared to July 2024, meaning that sales were up by 4.1% YoY on a selling day-adjusted basis.
The daily selling rate was measured at 53.6k units/day in July, up from 52.7k units/day in June. The annualized selling rate was estimated at 16.6 million units/year in July, up from 15.2 million units/year in June. Retail sales were estimated at 1.19 million units, up by 10.8% YoY, while fleet sales were thought to total 206k units, down by 4.5% YoY.
OEM Analysis
GM was once again the bestselling OEM in the market, with total sales of 237k units, and a market share of 17.0%. Despite a seemingly impressive monthly volume, GM’s market share has now declined for three straight months. Toyota Group ranked second in July sales, on 218k units, for a 15.6% share, with the group’s sales jumping by 19.9% YoY. Ford Group was in third place, on 182k units, but after a stellar Q2, the OEM’s share fell back to a modest 13.1% in July. At a brand level, Toyota outsold Ford, by 187k units to 176k units. While it has been typical in recent times for Toyota to sell higher volumes than Ford, the reverse had been the case in June. Chevrolet was third, on 153k units.
Model Analysis
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By GlobalDataDespite a slightly quiet month for Ford overall, the F-150 was the nation’s bestselling model once again in July, on 44.2k units – the F-150 has now held the top spot for four consecutive months. The Toyota RAV4 was in second on 39.8k units, while the Chevrolet Silverado came in third on 35.4k units. The ranking of the top three models was unchanged from June. The Chevrolet Equinox sold 31.8k units in July, its highest volume since March.
Segment Analysis
According to initial estimates, Compact Non-Premium SUV’s market share was 21.5% in July, the segment’s highest share since March. To some extent, however, this performance was upstaged by Midsize Non-Premium SUV, which achieved a market share of 17.2%, up by 2.0 pp on June’s result, and the highest for the segment since May 2022. The segment was boosted by robust volumes from models such as the Toyota 4Runner and Hyundai Palisade. After two stronger months in May and June, the Large Pickup segment saw its market share ease back to 13.8% in July.
David Oakley, Manager, Americas Sales Forecasts, GlobalData, said: “There was little sign of tariffs negatively impacting the market in July. Automakers have made a point of absorbing the higher costs they are seeing, and some have even extended offers that were previously due to expire at the beginning of the July. Therefore, from the consumer’s point-of-view, there was perhaps little to dissuade buyers from making purchases as normal. At the present time, OEMs are still vying for market share, rather than being overly concerned with protecting inventory. We should also bear in mind that for the majority of the month of July, the landscape regarding tariff rates in the longer-term was highly unclear. Automakers have therefore largely tried to maintain a business-as-usual approach, while mostly avoiding knee-jerk reactions in the face of uncertainty. The announcement that the tax credits available for Electric Vehicles (EVs) will be discontinued from September 30th appeared to notably boost sales of some EVs in July, an effect that we would expect to continue as we move through the next two months and the deadline looms larger”.
Forecast Updates
While OEMs have thus far largely adopted a “holding pattern” approach to tariff uncertainty, this is not necessarily a strategy they can maintain indefinitely. Several automakers reported either outright financial losses in Q2, or large reductions in profitability due to the cost of absorbing tariffs. Recent trade deals with various countries have given greater clarity to the industry, as it appears that the benchmark rate will be 15% for countries outside of North America. Although the Trump administration raised tariffs on some Canadian goods to 35%, vehicles compliant with the USMCA trade agreement – which covers the vast majority of models sourced from Canada – will still be subject to 25% tariffs on the non-US content of the vehicle, and the same applies to Mexico. Nevertheless, the prospect remains of some vehicles sourced from the US’s neighbors potentially incurring higher tariffs than a model imported from Japan, for example. In the longer-term, this seems unlikely to be sustained, but negotiations with Mexico, and particularly Canada, have been difficult. With an earlier-than-expected lowering of tariff rates, we now see US sales at around 15.7 million units in 2025, still down from almost 16.0 million units in 2024, but a considerably better outlook than would have been the case had the original tariffs remained in place without mitigation.
This article was first published on GlobalData’s dedicated research platform, the Automotive Intelligence Center.
