The simultaneous rise of SUVs and decline of Hatchbacks indicates that consumers are increasingly favoring vehicles that provide more space and versatility.
According to GlobalData’s bodystyle analysis, SUVs are estimated to account for 58% of Passenger Vehicles (PVs) in Western Europe by the end of 2025, up from 37% in 2020. This shift in consumer preference has allowed the SUV segment to gain market share at the expense of Conventional Vehicles, including Hatchbacks, Sedans, and MPVs.
In 2020, Hatchbacks were still the most popular bodystyle in Western Europe, holding a 40% market share. However, in 2021, SUVs overtook Hatchbacks to claim the largest share, marking an important shift in the composition of the regional market. Supply chain crises, cost pressures associated with electrification, and evolving consumer preferences have compelled manufacturers to adapt their offerings, with less profitable Small Cars—particularly Hatchbacks—caught in the crossfire. Pandemic-induced supply issues forced automakers to prioritize higher-margin vehicles, which expedited the decline in sales of smaller Hatchback models. By the end of 2025, Hatchbacks are projected to fall to a market share of just 26%, with a further decline to 24% expected by 2030. However, the fact that they remain a key entry-level option should prevent their market share from dropping to the lows seen for other affected bodystyles, such as MPVs.
The emergence of Chinese automakers highlights the importance of SUVs in the European market. According to GlobalData’s brand origin data, SUVs are expected to comprise over 70% of Chinese brand sales in Western Europe this year. Partly thanks to their economies of scale and government support, these manufacturers are now effectively competing worldwide. However, our forecast reveals a contrasting scenario in China, where only 52% of sales from domestic manufacturers will be accounted for by SUVs. This underscores the stronger European preference for SUVs, prompting Chinese manufacturers to strategically focus their efforts on this segment.
Another segment that is projected to grow in the coming years is the Sedan bodystyle, which is set to be better supported by the market’s shift toward Electric Vehicles (EVs), potentially due to their weight and aerodynamic advantages. Additionally, Sedans are typically designed with an emphasis on ride comfort, making them an appealing choice for many customers. Kia and Lexus are both scheduled to launch Midsize electric Sedans in 2027, while Audi is expected to launch an electric successor to the A3 in both Sedan and Hatchback variations.
SUVs are already dominant in the Premium market, limiting the potential for growth through 2030. Nonetheless, our forecast anticipates that this bodystyle will expand from 43% in 2020 to 64%. Meanwhile, Hatchbacks such as the A-class and A1 are expected to be discontinued and the loss of these volume models will put downward pressure on the bodystyle’s market share. However, several automakers are streamlining their production efforts to focus on more profitable models as a result. For example, Volvo is continuing to add a range of electric SUVs to its line-up. The EX30 and EX90 were introduced in 2023 and 2024, respectively, while production of the EX60 is expected to commence in 2026.
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In the Non-Premium segment, SUVs are estimated to expand from 35% in 2020 to 61% in 2030, with many brands adding several electric SUVs across the forecast horizon. For example, Honda Group is set to roll out the 0 SUV, while Toyota Group is scheduled to launch a Large electric SUV in 2028. In addition, Volkswagen Group is also ramping up to establish a significant presence in the SUV segment, with plans to introduce a series of models across Europe. Notable releases include the ID.2, expected in Q4 2025, along with the Skoda Epiq in 2026, and the electric T-Roc in 2029.
Expected to fare better than Hatchbacks are Sedans and Wagons, which will likely be more resistant to losing market share. In Germany, the share of Wagons is particularly robust, with the bodystyle holding 16% of the country’s PV market in 2024. Although their popularity has faded over the years, they remain a practical and fuel-efficient alternative to SUVs.
In summary, the transition to SUVs is primarily driven by evolving consumer preferences, profitability considerations, and strategic responses to market trends and supply chain dynamics. While Hatchbacks and smaller vehicles face a challenging road ahead, the resilience of Sedans and Wagons suggests that there is still room for diversity in the market. The rise of electric SUVs and the entry of new players, particularly from China, will continue to reshape the competitive landscape, forcing established automakers to innovate and adapt.
Georgia Lakey, Research Assistant, Research and Analysis
This article was first published on GlobalData’s dedicated research platform, the Automotive Intelligence Center.
