West European car registrations grew by 3.5% year-on-year in February, according to data released by LMC Automotive.
However, while February was described as a very strong month, the selling rate for the region as a whole fell back from its 10-year high of 15.3m units a year in January, to 14.9m units a year, still well above the post-recession average.
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Spain saw a 13% rise in February, and for the first two months of the year is already up 16.4% on the same period in 2017. Germany’s 7.4% gain on last year was described by LMC as ‘remarkable, given the high levels that the market has already reached’. The selling rate, which in January had touched 4m units a year, dropped back slightly to 3.7m units a year.
France saw a 4.3% gain in February, the annual selling rate at 2.1m units a year. In Italy, registrations were down by 1.4%, but LMC said that was against a strong February number last year.
The UK market was down 2.8% on last year, but LMC noted that February is always a quiet month for UK car sales. LMC said that March will be the ‘litmus test of the true health of the UK market’.
Despite a very strong start to the year in Western Europe, LMC is still forecasting a slight slowdown of growth for 2018 as a whole, to 1.9%, with the West European car market reaching close to 14.6m units. The pace of sales in Germany seems unsustainable, and the UK outlook remains weak, with a number of economic headwinds.
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By GlobalDataLMC analyst Jonathon Poskitt was cautiously optimistic about the underlying demand picture in the region, but says the market is topping out. “The economic situation across the region is broadly positive right now, but it’s hard to see high levels of car market growth ahead given where the European car market is currently. The spring results will be an important indicator of where the market for 2018 is going to turn out. A small gain on last year’s total is still the most likely outcome.”
Notes: Greece and Luxembourg: estimates for latest month.
Greece data source has changed to Sales from Registrations.
