Automatic transmissions – traditionally so popular in North American (84 percent of cars are automatic today), have not so far been anywhere near as successful in Europe. But things are about to change. European automatic penetration has almost doubled from 8% to just over 14% in the past ten years and one car in four is expected to be automatic by 2005 in Europe.
We’ve all grown so used to the stepped automatic transmission (AT) that it is almost inconceivable that the makers would let it change. However, the traditional ‘slushmatic’ is about to be challenged by these exciting new technologies:
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Automated Manual Transmission (AMT)
Based on a manual transmission, this adds compact electronic controls and actuators to the gearbox. The advantages are low cost and no increase in size, along with an improvement in fuel economy and driver friendliness. AMT is already in production in Volkswagen’s Lupo, the tiny Smart, Alfa Romeo 156, and certain Ferrari models; these last two with ‘paddles’ or buttons on the steering wheel to change gear.
Continuously Variable Transmission (CVT)
Traditionally using a ‘rubber band’ running between two variable diameter pulleys on very small cars such as DAF and Volvo, this transmission has now received a metal belt and electronic control. Larger engine torques can now be accommodated – Audi’s new CVT (in the A6) even mates to their V6 diesel.
Infinitely Variable Transmission (IVT)
Based on Torotrak technology, this compact unit consists of an arrangement of angled rollers and input/output discs and offers such a wide range of ratios that it can replace the bulky dual ratio transfer case in AWDs. It even avoids the need for the CVT type belt. In development since the 1950s, it has only just received the necessary traction oil and electronic controls to allow it to function properly. Capable of handling high torques, the first application outside Japan (Nissan already has an IVT-type unit in some of its domestic executive cars) will be in an SUV – probably a Ford/Mazda shared vehicle.
One may ask why the need for new technologies; the reasons are two-fold:
What of the future? Well, for CVT, the future is very bright. Ford and ZF have invested in a joint venture facility in Ohio to produce more than 1 million units a year by 2003. These will be sold to all makers. In fact, Fiat will build them under license from 2005 in Italy. GM has a facility in Hungary to produce more than 250,000 units a year at full capacity – the first application will require 100,000 units a year. LUK (the Audi CVT supplier) can initially make 100,000 units a year. GM has also invested in Fuji Heavy Industries to have access to Japanese CVTs. Daimler Chrysler and BMW are investigating the concept and rumor has Volkswagen evaluating CVTs for its entire lineup.
For IVT, the outlook is also positive, with Ford identifying the transmission as being the best automatic for customer satisfaction. Production facilities for the IVT are less well established than those for CVT, but we expect significant luxury vehicle and SUV market share by 2005.
AMTs are destined to be popular in Europe, being cheaper than the conventional stepped AT because they can be designed as an add-on to existing manual gearboxes. While less likely to be used in America because of limited manual transmission manufacturing capability, AMTs will make it onto the market in smaller US cars.
The trusty stepped AT will continue to dominate the market on big torque applications but will gain additional speeds and features; ZF and DaimlerChrysler are both just about to put their six speeders into production.
One thing is certain; the clutch pedal is going to become a rarity in the cars of the 21st Century.
European Automatic Growth
European light vehicle transmission fitment: shares by type forecast to 2005.
