Here’s something for all of us to think about. How will driverless vehicles emerge and what will it mean for car companies? Google‘s vision is audacious. It’s essentially one of the driverless taxi. You get in, communicate to the vehicle where you want to go (and maybe how you would like to get there) and, hey presto, it takes you there.
And while you are on route, you are free to use the time as you wish. Gaze out of the window daydreaming, or checking your emails, reading newspapers, working, whatever.
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It’s a compelling vision. A modern complaint is ‘I am time poor’. There just are not enough hours in the day are there? This could free up some valuable time. Who wouldn’t want that?
But hang on a second. It doesn’t actually sound like much fun does it? Part of the fun of driving is being in control of the vehicle, exercising some physical dexterity, making decisions, understanding spatial relationships, dare I say it…the thrill of a little speed. The act of driving a car can deliver a lot of fun.
There are, naturally, lots of uncertainties. How will this automotive area develop and on what timescale? Google-style pods? Dual control for best of both worlds? Press a button and the car takes over? Will car brands and the benefits they convey to the consumer remain relevant? Or are we looking at a commoditised transport solution where the cheapest provider wins?
To stand back for a second, it seems to me we are at a point in the evolution of the car – and its societal impact – where a number of changes and significant fragmentations to the personal transport market are coming:
- Global urbanisation and the emergence of megacities. This will mean that urban mobility will increasingly embrace other modes and their integration for sustainable solutions (not just environmental, but to avoid chronic traffic congestion that constrains economic growth and makes cities less ‘liveable’)
- Enhanced personal connectivity means that modal integration via apps on smartphones will increase modal mix and make journey choices much more dynamic (eg the bus has broken down, but my journey time optimising app tells me to take a 10 minute walk and catch a tram that will be waiting)
- Car sharing is emerging as an increasingly attractive option for some groups who are deterred by high costs of car ownership. There is a ‘streaming generation’ who are perhaps less fixated on actually owning things than previous generations, more interested in life experiences and being constantly connected with their friends via digital platforms and social media.
- Electric vehicles may be off to a slow start, but batteries will get better and niches will evolve, in part because electric vehicles offer some big environmental benefits when it comes to urban mobility.
- Vehicles will become increasingly connected to each other and to road infrastructure for safety reasons and for intelligent transport systems that can optimise traffic flows, reduce emissions.
- People are living longer.
So, into that mix, we also have the idea of the highly autonomous vehicle. Does something like Google’s driverless car (I prefer to think of it as a driverless taxi) have a role to play? Once the legal issues have been overcome, I would imagine that it most certainly would. The technology is available and a ‘Google car’ would fit the narrative of key trends described above: it could fit snugly into the future modal mix for intra-urban mobility. Inter-urban? Less clear as that means longer distances that might be better for ‘grouping people’ in rail carriages or road coaches, but there is perhaps a slightly different opportunity there, too (platooning vehicles on highways are one vision).
Would people own driverless cars? Maybe, but I am seeing a rank of them at the railway station. It could facilitate that last leg of a rail trip. Or, for a trip across town, you dial one up and it comes to your door, helpfully rings you when it is outside. You simply get in and it confirm who you are and the planned journey. You are then free to do whatever you want to do. Maybe this car has an electric powertrain and you selected that when you booked it (for carbon credits). But why would you want to actually own one of these, or personalise it? It’s a commodity item, a pod, a box engineered to move you from A to B at the lowest cost and with maximum operational efficiency.
Automotive companies need to think about how they are going to address this whole area so that they are not marginalised and people are still drawn to their core brand values. Make no mistake, some of what is being talked about could be very disruptive to existing business models. Car companies may like to dip their toes into car sharing, but if that concept really takes off and people stop owning a car (which, remember, sits there economically inactive for most of the time), the annual market for new cars will inevitably shrink. Google is a very, very big brand that thinks outside of the box. You can imagine some very senior people inside that company plotting a long-term strategy to disrupt a ‘dinosaur industry’ that is ripe for change.
Do you like to drive a car? If you are reading this, I would hope that you answer yes to that. But do you always like driving a car? Is it always pleasurable? Are there times when you would like to hit a button and let someone/autopilot take over? I suspect that, when it comes, the driverless car will be a very compelling proposition to many, especially as our creaking bodies carry on for longer.
Google has perhaps offered us a glimpse into how a part of the future may look. It will take time to become reality, but it’s an interesting one that should not be readily dismissed.
