Car sales in Western Europe grew by a slight 1% in November versus last year, according to data released by LMC Automotive.
LMC said that November’s results highlight that the recovery in new car demand remains fragile in the region.
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However, analysts at LMC also noted that November 2014 included one fewer selling day compared to November 2013.
The Seasonally Adjusted Annualised Rate (SAAR) of sales, which takes into account selling day factors, stood at 12.3m units a year. LMC said that while this is weaker than the (revised) 12.7m units a year for October, “it still represents progress”.
LMC also said that the economic outlook for Western Europe is now weaker, though a gradual pick-up in GDP growth is still assumed over the next few years. An improving economy should continue to support the recovery of the region’s car market, LMC said.
Last month, registrations were a little lower in both Germany (-1.8%) and France. The selling rate in Germany eased back to 3m units a year from the 3.2m units recorded last year.
In Spain, the PIVE scrappage incentive scheme has been extended again. The selling rate for the last couple of months has been comfortably above 900,000 units a year, “setting it up well for further growth heading into 2015”.
New car registrations in Italy were a little higher in November with the selling rate above 1.4m units for a second month, “though the potential remains for somewhat stronger growth once economic conditions become more supportive”.
UK car registrations grew strongly once again, up 8% year-on-year. LMC noted that the UK market will have contributed to well over a third of the region’s volume growth for the 2014 full-year.
LMC said it expects the UK market to make a much smaller contribution to the region’s volume growth over coming years – it effectively having already fully recovered to pre-Great Recession levels – and the market has continued to strengthen recently. A strong economic performance and competitive car deals are among factors helping support the market, LMC noted.
LMC forecasts that the West European car market will reach 12.11m units in 2014 (+4.8% on 2013) with growth of 2.8% to 12.45m units projected for 2015 (for comparison, that’s lower than 2011’s 12.81m). In 2007, the market peaked at 14.8m units.
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West European Car Sales
| Sales ( units) | Selling rate (units/year) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2014 | Nov 2013 | Percent change | Year-to-date 2014 |
Year-to-date 2013 |
Percent change | 11/2/2014 | Year-to-date 2014 |
Year 2013 | Percent change | |
| WESTERN EUROPE | 919,5 09 | 91 0,236 | 1% | 11181677 | 10,66 5,201 | 4.8% | 1 2,320,440 | 12,093, 433 | 11546171 | 4.7% |
| AUSTRIA | 23,0 95 | 23350 | -1.1% | 287403 | 29 8,204 | -3.6% | 309722 | 309, 722 | 319035 | -2.9% |
| BELGIUM | 29,7 39 | 32023 | -7.1% | 455949 | 46 0,984 | -1.1% | 446778 | 480, 106 | 486065 | -1.2% |
| DENMARK | 13,8 79 | 15897 | -12.7% | 172348 | 16 7,941 | 2.6% | 174332 | 189, 905 | 182198 | 4.2% |
| FINLAND | 7,2 20 | 7468 | -3.3% | 99127 | 97527 | 1.6% | 118754 | 104, 624 | 103450 | 1.1% |
| FRANCE | 135,0 70 | 13 8,279 | -2.3% | 1632201 | 1,61 4,532 | 1.1% | 1777357 | 1,809, 080 | 1789868 | 1.1% |
| GERMANY | 250,1 00 | 25 4,651 | -1.8% | 2807091 | 2,73 7,111 | 2.6% | 3001840 | 3,055, 480 | 2952431 | 3.5% |
| GREEC E | 5,6 05 | 5464 | 2.6% | 65457 | 54448 | 20.2% | 76717 | 68, 819 | 58696 | 17.2% |
| IRELAN D | 7 82 | 700 | 11.7% | 96273 | 74105 | 29.9% | 94904 | 97, 001 | 74317 | 30.5% |
| ITALY | 107,9 65 | 10 2,922 | 4.9% | 1266862 | 1,21 5,595 | 4.2% | 1408298 | 1,362, 293 | 1304300 | 4.4% |
| LU XEMBOURG | 3,2 70 | 3544 | -7.7% | 45939 | 44069 | 4.2% | 51334 | 49, 371 | 46624 | 5.9% |
| NETHER LANDS | 32,5 07 | 40354 | -19.4% | 352723 | 37 7,647 | -6.6% | 430950 | 378, 496 | 416810 | -9.2% |
| NO RWAY | 11,4 86 | 12079 | -4.9% | 131553 | 13 0,756 | 0.6% | 141707 | 144, 387 | 142151 | 1.6% |
| PO RTUGAL | 11,6 86 | 8810 | 32.6% | 130834 | 97285 | 34.5% | 147541 | 144, 544 | 105897 | 36.5% |
| SPAIN | 65,1 22 | 55453 | 17.4% | 781723 | 66 2,180 | 18.1% | 925287 | 859, 729 | 722693 | 19% |
| SWEDEN | 25,9 16 | 24779 | 4.6% | 276804 | 24 3,224 | 13.8% | 306899 | 307, 920 | 269014 | 14.5% |
| SWITZERLAND | 23,7 40 | 24882 | -4.6% | 269153 | 27 7,774 | -3.1% | 303279 | 296, 492 | 307885 | -3.7% |
| UK | 172,3 27 | 15 9,581 | 8% | 2310237 | 2,11 1,819 | 9.4% | 2604741 | 2,435, 466 | 2264737 | 7.5% |
| Notes: | Austria, Denmark, Greece, Luxembourg and Switzerland: estimates for latest month The percent change in the final column compares the average selling rate in the year-to-date with the last full year. |
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