Turbocharger manufacturer Honeywell has forecast a big rise in global sales of turbochargers, a finding that is also consistent with just-auto’s research.
A big driver in the turbocharger volume surge is the auto industry’s need for more fuel-efficient engines that can better help to meet tighter CO2 emission and fuel economy standards across the world. Turbochargers are a key technology enabler in engine downsizing that means smaller displacement engines yielding similar power output to larger previous generation engines.
Go deeper with GlobalData
Discover B2B Marketing That Performs
Combine business intelligence and editorial excellence to reach engaged professionals across 36 leading media platforms.
Global centres for increased turbocharger fitment are Europe and North America, where the regulatory pressures for enhanced fuel efficiency are at their greatest. However, big increases for turbocharger fitment are also forecast in emerging markets.
Honeywell Turbo Technologies expects sales of turbocharged commercial and passenger vehicles in North America to increase by 67% during the next five years reflecting the addition of 2.6m more turbocharged vehicles on the road during that time.
Honeywell estimates current penetration of turbocharged commercial and passenger vehicles is currently at 17% of vehicle sales in North America and expects that number to increase to 31% by 2018. This dramatic growth curve led the EPA to recently project that 90% of new vehicles in the US market could be turbocharged by 2025.
“Honeywell’s turbo technologies will be part of more than 60 models in the United States in 2014 reflecting nearly 20 different brands,” said Honeywell Transportation Systems President and CEO Terrence Hahn. “We see the US market growing this year by approximately 22 percent from last year reflecting the addition of some 700,000 new turbocharged vehicles in 2013. Downsized turbocharged engines are a no compromise solution for consumers demanding great fuel economy and performance with the added benefit of reducing harmful emissions.”
In 2025, the US Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) regulations take full effect, requiring all new cars and trucks to achieve an average fuel economy of 54.5 miles per gallon. Given this long-term objective, Honeywell estimates the number of turbocharged commercial and passenger vehicles sold in North America will reach 3.9m in 2013, up from 3.2m in 2012. By 2018, Honeywell expects the number to reach 6.5m vehicles.
Elsewhere, Honeywell forecasts:
- In Europe, Honeywell expects turbo gasoline applications to grow significantly by 2018 driving the light vehicle market to nearly 67% turbo penetration.
- In China, Honeywell expects turbo penetration to double from today’s 4m to more than 10m vehicles by 2018 driven largely by gasoline applications.
- In India, Honeywell expects a turbo penetration increase from 46% today to 48% by 2018 with a focus on small diesel engine applications.
- On a global basis, turbo penetration is expected by Honeywell to grow from 30% in 2012 covering all segments to 38% by 2018.
Honeywell and just-auto QUBE projections ‘in line’
Honeywell’s data and projections are broadly in line with those in just-auto’s dedicated ‘QUBE’ turbochargers research service.
Consultant Ian Henry who provides the detailed analysis of turbochargers in QUBE said: “Our analysis of 2012, showing a 31.7% global fitment for turbos, is remarkably close to Honeywell’s 30%.
“However, we are a little more optimistic than Honeywell looking ahead. Honeywell projects a 38% global fitment rate in 2018, with our analysis suggesting a little over 43%.”
Henry added that Honeywell is a little more cautious on North America, projecting 6.5m vehicles with turbos in 2018, against QUBE’s 7.05m.
“QUBE and Honeywell are remarkably consistent when it comes to China,” Henry said. “Honeywell is projecting 10m turbos there in 2018 against 9.8m forecast by us in QUBE.”
North America’s turbo ‘revolution’
The change in the market in North America – led by Ford – is particularly remarkable; in 2008, there were no turbocharged petrol engines made in North America, all previous turbo-fitted engines having been imported. The first North American built turbocharged petrol engine was fitted to the Lincoln MKS which used the first North American EcoBoost engine. This engine has since been fitted to the Ford Flex, Explorer and most significantly the F-series pick-up trucks.
“GM has been somewhat behind Ford in terms of the fitment of turbochargers, but it is slowly going down the same route,” said Ian Henry. “It has already started on this journey – the 2012 Cadillac XTS had a turbo option on the 3.6 litre V6 engine. GM is however also working on improving the fuel efficiency of its naturally aspirated engines and has claimed that it can achieve similar fuel efficiencies gains to those available with turbochargers through other means.”
“The impetus at Chrysler will come from Fiat’s MultiAir programme,” adds Henry.
The CAFE rules announced in 2012 will force GM and Chrysler to accelerate their use of fuel saving technologies such as turbochargers and a large part of the increased volumes which will be seen in the next few years and into the 2020s come from the widening take-up across these VMs, Ford having led the way.
According to just-auto’s QUBE data, North America currently has a turbo fitment rate below 20% but by the late 2020s, if not before, its fitment rate will be much closer to that of Europe, at close to 75%.
