Edmunds.com is predicting an April SAAR in the range of 13.3m to 14.1m and a possible 700,000-unit hit to the full-year tally if earthquake-related Japanese supply problems last through the summer.
Senior analyst Ray Zhou said: “April sales look strong so far; if the sales follow the historical pattern and the fleet mix is about the same as last month, we could hit a SAAR of 14.1m (compared to last month’s 13.1m SAAR). However, the monthly sales will likely end up lower, perhaps around 13.3m SAAR, as inventories grow leaner because of the earthquake, and there is a slowdown of pull-ahead of sales by consumers buying now in expectation of a shortage.”
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Edmunds’ chief economist Lacey Plache said of supply issues: “At this point we’re still optimistic that any supply constraints will only slide summer sales to later in the year when automaker production is expected to be back to normal. So, our initial forecast of 12.9m is still intact. But even a moderate impact on production for Japanese automakers that lasts through most of the summer could lower sales to 12.6m and a more severe impact could push sales down to as low as 12.2m.”
On prices, Zhou said: “Prices are changing, mainly due to the rising price of gas. For all new vehicles sold in the first week of April compared to the first week of March, the price for a typical vehicle increased about US$120 (selling from about 94.3% of MSRP to 94.7%.) when it typically would be stable or slightly down at this time of the year. This shift in pricing is mainly due to the higher average price of compact cars, which increased about $230 per vehicle sold while the remainder of the segments were stable or slightly up, averaging a $70 increase. It is possible that the increase could be partially due to the expectation of the shortage, as this time of year prices of compact cars are typically down slightly.
“Our Days to Turn metric, which counts the days that cars sit on the dealer lot before selling, is down more than 10%, from 58 days to 52, and this is laying a foundation for future price increases due to the potential shortage.”
