Research firm Autofacts has revised its forecast for global vehicle output in 2011 up by 650,000 units to 75.9m (2010, 71.5m) citing the rapid recovery of Japan’s domestic automaker and supplier industry.
Autofacts says that with the majority of Japanese vehicle manufacturers and suppliers expected to resume operations at full tilt by September, production in the June to August period should be commensurately stronger, contributing to 2011 output of 8.39m units, some 221,000 units more than the prior forecast release.
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However, the firm cautions that there are still a number of risk factors affecting the outlook, including weak economic data flowing from countries deeply affected by the global financial crisis – especially those facing concerns over debt contagion – combined with economic aftershocks emanating from the Japan crisis.
It also says that inflationary fears and registration quotas on China’s passenger car sales have slowed market growth this year. Despite the introduction of scrappage incentives, Autofacts forecasts light vehicle output in China will only increase around 160,000 units this year over the prior estimate of 15.25m.
Similarly, in India, with interest rates rising to dampen inflation and rising vehicle prices, the market growth rate has slowed ‘in line with expectations’, Autofacts says. Year-on-year growth in May 2011 was 7%, the smallest increase since May 2009. Despite the weakening market, which is expected to bring single-digit growth for 2011, Autofacts maintains that the developing export programme should cause production to grow by a hefty 23%, as evidenced by steady assembly figures in the first five months trending above 20% in terms of annual growth.
As far as North America goes, Autofacts forecasts that despite some economic weakness, North America’s assembly topline is ‘still likely to improve as inventory rebounds, export demand strengthens, and 2012MY product launches in H2 2011 support industry growth’.
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