General Motors shares plunged more than 30% Monday after an analyst forecast their price would fall to zero, saying that even if there is a government bailout, shareholders would not benefit.
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“We are lowering our target on GM equity to zero dollars,” a Deutsche Bank report said.
“Even if GM succeeds in averting a bankruptcy, we believe that the company’s future path is likely to be bankruptcy-like,” it said.
“While we believe that GM’s secured creditors may get a par recovery, unsecured creditors may get very low recovery. Equity shareholders are unlikely to get anything.”
The Detroit Free Press said the bank had come up with three stark scenarios for the automaker.
The first was GM gets government loans, but is still forced to rework its debt and union obligations. The company cuts its US brands to three, and needs more money for restructuring in the future.
In the second, the government oversees GM’s restructuring through a [1980s] Chrysler-like bailout, forcing lenders to take a loss on their debts, and taking an ownership stake in the company.
In the third scenario, GM goes bankrupt, with the government providing the cash necessary to keep GM operating through the bankruptcy.
Agence France Presse (AFP) said GM shares recovered slightly by mid-morning to US$3.37 after hitting a low of 3.02 dollars – off 30.7% – following the release of the Deutsche Bank report on the company. Other reports said that valued the stock at post-war 1940s levels.
The shares were down to $2.82 by 17:00GMT (12:00ET).
The shares had closed at $4.36 on Friday, down from over $30 a year ago.
GM that day announced a Q3 net loss of $2.5bn dollars, said it had burned through another $6.9bn of cash in the quarter, suspended merger talks with Chrysler and announced more cost cuts.
