After concluding H1 2025 with growth of 3% YoY, the ASEAN LV market began H2 with a decline of 1% YoY, primarily driven by negative sales results in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines.
In Indonesia, LV sales dropped by 17% YoY in July, while recent data indicates that demand continued to fall by 19% YoY in August, marking the fourth consecutive month of double-digit declines. This contributed to an overall decrease of 10% YoY across January-August as a whole. A similar trajectory is likely in September, with sales anticipated to continue falling due to nationwide protests from late August to early September. Although the protests have temporarily ended following the President’s cabinet reshuffle and acceptance of the protesters’ demands, known as the “17+8 demands”, these events have increased political uncertainty and will likely hinder LV volumes.
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As such, the sales outlook for Indonesia has been revised downward in the long term due to: a) political uncertainty and the possibility of protest recurrence; b) the Bank of Indonesia reporting a decrease in consumer income while debt payments have increased, implying reduced spending and purchasing power; and c) uncertainty surrounding new capital projects after the current president cut the budget for these initiatives, which may lead to their scaling down or complete cancelation. As a result, Indonesia’s 2025 volumes are now projected to stand at 720k units, the lowest annual total seen in 15 years, except for 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.
In Malaysia, LV sales dropped by 2% YoY in July, although the actual total reached 71k units, which is significantly higher than the monthly average for January-July 2025, of 64k units. Based on registration data, August sales increased by 3% YoY and 5% MoM to 75k units, marking the highest monthly sales total for the year so far, followed by 73k units in March and 71k units in July. The growth in August was largely driven by the delivery of newly launched models from Chinese brands, particularly the BYD Atto 2, Chery Tiggo Cross, and Omoda C9, as well as new introductions from the national brand, including the Proton eMas7 BEV and the upgraded X50. Additionally, ongoing price reductions have stimulated new vehicle sales.
Malaysia’s LV sales outlook for 2025 has been revised slightly upward to 790k units, owing to the stronger-than-expected performance seen in August. Furthermore, Q4 2025 is likely to see a boost as consumers rush to buy before price hikes occur in 2026; the government is set to change the tax calculation methodology, referred to as Open Market Value (OMV), which will increase the prices of locally produced models. OMV was initially planned for implementation in January 2020 but has been postponed until January 2026. Additionally, the tax exemption for imported BEVs will expire in December 2025.
In the Philippines, July sales dropped by 2% YoY and 6% MoM. According to the national association, the weak performance was caused by severe flooding and tropical storms during the month. However, in YTD terms, the market has expanded by 4% YoY, supported by strong economic growth and interest rate cuts. In addition, remittance inflows rose by 3.1% in H1 2025, exceeding the central bank’s projection of 2.8% for the full year. Overall, our outlook remains unchanged, with 2025 sales projected to increase to 493k units for the fifth consecutive year. However, the growth rate is expected to slow to 4% YoY in 2025, down from 18% YoY in 2021, 27% YoY in 2022, 20% YoY in 2023, and 8% YoY in 2024.
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By GlobalDataMeanwhile, Thailand’s LV sales increased by 10% YoY in July, marking the third consecutive month of growth. Our preliminary data suggests that volumes in August continued to grow by around 4% YoY, leading to a 1% YoY expansion for January-August overall. As such, we have marginally increased our 2025 sales outlook to 578k units, although several challenges remain, including the repercussions of US tariffs, ongoing political tensions within Thailand, a significant drop in tourist numbers, and the Thailand-Cambodia border conflict. Additionally, high levels of household debt and stringent lending conditions continue to exert pressure on consumer spending.
LV sales in Vietnam also rose by 16% YoY in July, but this growth rate reflects a deceleration compared to the 41% YoY growth seen in H1 2025. Looking ahead, we adopt a cautiously optimistic perspective for the remainder of 2025, forecasting total LV sales to reach approximately 522k units, representing a 12% YoY increase. It is important to note that we expect a slowdown in growth in H2 2025, primarily due to a high comparative base established in late 2024.
In conclusion, the ASEAN LV sales outlook has been slightly lowered by an average of 1% compared to our previous report, due to the downward revision for Indonesia. As such, ASEAN LV sales are now projected to reach 3.1 million units in 2025 and 4.2 million units in 2032.
This article was first published on GlobalData’s dedicated research platform, the Automotive Intelligence Center.
