Most major carmakers will introduce direct injection petrol engines in the next few years, says Dr Rolf Leonhard, executive vice president of engineering in Bosch’s petrol systems division.
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Bosch expects that the total global market for petrol direct injection systems will be around three million units in by 2008 and says the growth could be similar to that enjoyed by the diesel five years ago.
Critically, Leonhard argues, the new engines are fun to drive as well as economical.
And they should be relatively cheap.
Because of the high volumes systems costs could be 30 to 50% below first-generation GDI systems introduced in 2000, says Leonhard.
In addition within the exhaust system a new and “very effective starting in heating strategy to the catalytic converter” that Bosch has developed is allowed to simplify exhaust gas treatment system required by SULEV to the extent that “the cost to the overall system of engine, engine management and exhaust” of the DI petrol engine “are on a par with the simple port fuel injection system” says Leonhard.
By 2008 “one in five gasoline engines sold in Europe will be with direct injection” says Leonhard, and “about half of them will be equipped with turbochargers.”
In Japan GDI is expected to plateau at around 5% market share and in the US GDI is expected to grow to 3% to 5% of the market.
Leonhard says that second-generation charged direct injection petrol engines offer about a 15% improvement in fuel economy through downsizing with stoichiometric combustion.
Even better fuel economy is possible with turbocharging and start-stop systems, he says.
Bosch expects the market share of hybrids to grow to 1% of the total global vehicle market by 2010, possibly rising to 5% by 2025.
The North American market is expected to show the most dynamic growth, according to Manfred Walter, head of the Competence Centre for hybrid systems that Bosch created last year.
The American market “is very emotionally inclined toward hybrid vehicles” said Walter, with hybrid SUVs already having a proven appeal and attracting the greatest OEM interest.
“There and in Asia, the dominating category will be the strong hybrid with a smaller share of mild hybrids.”
Bosch sees the real benefits of hybrids in stop-go traffic and in Europe foresees a mix of fuel saving mild hybrids and driving-fun enhancing full hybrids offering the biggest gains over the diesel.
The competence centre employs 100 employees and Bosch has another 100 working on hybrids in other departments. “The efficient functioning of hybrid vehicles requires an optional tuning of engine, electrical motor, brakes and other systems,” said Walter.
The hybrid is more than a combination of individual technical components and the breadth of Bosch’s experience in these areas makes it a natural partner for OEMs looking to develop the area – indeed the only reason why Bosch was not involved in the first production models was that its major customers did not believe that the technology would be cost-effective, said Walter.
Bosch hopes to be supplier for 10 of the 50 hybrids that it expects to enter the market by 2010.
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