The UK-based consultant CLEAR has just launched its latest forecast of the European market for heavy goods vehicle trailers. The consultant forecasts further tough times ahead for the troubled sector.
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Despite a reasonable start to the year following the record sales levels of 2004, when European HGV trailer sales in the seven largest European markets exceeded 130,000 units, the forecast for 2005 is a 5.4% reduction in sales.
Economic forecasts for GDP, and in particular, investment growth, have weakened again, CLEAR says. In addition, the trailer replacement cycle is on a downturn.
The only support factor is the inclusion of the new East European markets in the EU, which is giving a boost to international transport.
Looking forward, 2007 to 2009 are still forecast to be record years in volume terms, but with lower growth levels than in either the late 1980s or 1990s. And the big problem for the sector’s participants is squeezed margins.
According to Gary Beecroft, Managing Director of CLEAR, “The biggest problem for trailer manufacturers is their non-existent margins. Price competition is very keen – markets have transformed from being national to international, with German manufacturers in particular exporting aggressively. At the same time costs of commodities such as steel, rubber, etc have rocketed, and it is not possible in the current market to pass these costs on to the customer.”
In the past two years, the number three and four players in the market, Kögel of Germany and General Trailer of France, have gone into administration. Kögel was restructured but General Trailer was broken up and sold off piece meal. In the UK, Crane Fruehauf, one of the oldest names in road haulage, went bust and only a small part of the company was saved. Southfields is another player who has gone, CLEAR says.
Trailer production is forecast by CLEAR to exceed 200,000 units by 2009. Exports to countries outside of Western Europe are expected to strengthen – especially to the east, helped by the new EU members.
CLEAR can be contacted by telephone at +44 20 8892 8379
