just-auto.com

Kelley predicts November rise for US vehicle sales

By Dave Leggett | 25 November 2016

In contrast with the view of JD Power/LMC, the analysts at Kelly Blue Book  (KBB) are forecasting that the US light vehicle market will show growth in November.

KBB predicts that November new vehicle sales will increase 4% year-over-year to a total of 1.37m units, resulting in an estimated 17.7m seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).

A market of that size would be the highest November sales total on record, beating the previous record of 1.32 million units in November 2001.

"Many automotive industry sales records will be broken in November; although, there is the added benefit of two extra selling days year-over-year," said Tim Fleming, analyst for Kelley Blue Book.

"With the help of substantial incentives and holiday sales events, especially Black Friday weekend, retail sales will see the most significant improvements. SUVs and trucks continue to be the biggest sellers, and in fact, cars could be outsold 2-to-1 by light trucks once the final numbers are tallied."

After a record U.S. sales total in 2015, Kelley Blue Book's full-year forecast for 2016 calls for sales in the range of 17.3 to 17.5 million, which would range from a 1% decrease to a possible 1% increase. 

Edmunds.com also projects a small November gain. It forecasts that 1,365,369 new cars and trucks will be sold in the US in November, for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 17.6m. That would be a 2.7% increase on November 2015.

"It's probably no coincidence that this month's strong sales performance come at the same time that the Dow Jones Average reached an all-time high," says Edmunds.com Executive Director of Industry Analysis Jessica Caldwell. "Now that the presidential election is over, shoppers have more confidence in the economy than they had just a month ago, and that gives them extra motivation to make big-ticket purchases. If this month's forecast holds, December's year-over-year sales only need to be flat to set a new annual record in 2016. Get your popcorn ready because it's going to be a nail-biter."

See also: JDPower/LMC - US car sales slipping in November