Research by KPMG after interviews with auto executives from several countries showed that Brazil will remain the world's fourth largest for cars and light commercials as far ahead as 2020.

By the end of this decade sales are forecast to climb to 5.8m units yearly reflecting an average annual growth of about 6.5% or 57% within seven years.

According to the consulting company, India may pass Brazil in 2014 or 2015. Yet in 2016 Brazil will recover in view of a Japanese market slowdown seen in that year.

Although Japan ranks third currently, forecasts are for 4.3m vehicle sales in 2020 or 600,000 units below current registrations, dropping the country from third to fifth in the world rankings.

China will continue with its spectacular performance, jumping from an expected 21m sales in 2013 to around 35m in seven years (65% more).

The analysis reflects unprecedented demand in emerging countries though the USwill keep recovering and will remain the world’s second largest market.

Projections point to a 14% growth to 17.4m vehicles by 2020 from 15.3m this year.

For European markets, the numbers are not reassuring. Germany, UK, France and Italy will b the biggest in that order. But the growth percentage will be modest, basically returning to pre-2008/2009 crisis figures or slightly above. Russia is expected to be sixth in sales.

The main reasons in the report are that emerging countries still show low motorisation density. Brazil is just reaching five inhabitants per vehicle now. In the US this density is just above one inhabitant/vehicle and it's below two in the traditional European markets.

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