July SAAR is forecast at 16.6m-16.8m by two leading analysts

July SAAR is forecast at 16.6m-16.8m by two leading analysts

New vehicle sales in the US in July are expected to increase 11.6% year on year to 1.46m units, resulting in an estimated 16.6m seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book (KBB).

Edmunds.com forecast sales of 1,461,290 and SAAR of 16.8m, noting this would be the highest July sales since the 1.49m in July 2006.

"July’s performance is the clearest indication yet that retail buyers are driving market demand,” said senior analyst Jessica Caldwell. "Shoppers are looking past news of recalls and rising gas prices and they’re finding affordable interest rates and other incentives that make it easier to buy a new car."

"Following last month’s record SAAR since July 2006, sales should slow slightly, but remain strong overall in July," said KBB senior analyst Alec Gutierrez. "Sales in the first half of the year totaled 8.15m, an increase of 4.2% from last year. In the second quarter, sales hit 4.41m, which is the second-best quarter since 2006."

New car sales increases are expected to continue into the second half of the year, for a full year total of 16.3m which would be a 4.9% improvement from 2013. 

In July, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,465,000 units, up 11.6% from July 2013 and up 3.3% from June 2014.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for July 2014 is estimated to be 16.6m, up from 15.7m in July 2013 and down from 16.9m in June 2014.

Retail sales are expected to account for 88% of volume in July 2014.

Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 14.5m vehicles in July, with fleet transactions accounting for 13.8% of total sales.

Edmunds.com projects that Toyota will post the most notable sales performance in July. The forecast anticipates that the Japanese automaker will see sales grow 12.4 percent year over year and 7.7 percent month over month. As a result, Toyota is poised to surpass Ford as the second best-selling manufacturer for the first month since August 2013.

KBB reckons most manufacturers are poised for a successful month with Chrysler Group coming out on top with more than 20% growth.  Once again, the Jeep and RAM brands will drive the group’s strength but the recently redesigned Chrysler 200 also should offer a boost to the automaker in July. 

"Nissan North America also is gaining market share this month with an anticipated increase of 14.6%," said Gutierrez. "So far this year, Nissan has increased sales of its three biggest sellers, Altima, Rogue and Sentra, by 18%.  This is especially impressive considering overall industry sales of compact and mid-size cars have slowed this year."

While most vehicle segments will increase sales in July, Kelley Blue Book expects the compact and mid-size car segments to continue to lose market share.  In fact, non-luxury car sales, which consist of nearly 40% of the market, are down 1.5%, due to the increasing popularity of small and mid-size SUV/crossovers.

"In addition to increasing small SUV sales, luxury utility sales also are on the rise climbing 14% this year, helping improve overall luxury sales by 8.6%,” said Gutierrez. While [we don't] expect big luxury segment shifts in July, it is noteworthy that luxury vehicles are responsible for nearly a quarter of the industry’s growth in 2014."

 

Sales Volume 1

Market Share 2

Manufacturer

Jul-14

Jul-13

YOY %

Jul-14

Jul-13

YOY %

General Motors (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)

259,000

234,071

10.7%

17.7%

17.8%

-0.1%

Toyota Motor Company (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)

213,000

193,394

10.1%

14.5%

14.7%

-0.2%

Ford Motor Company (Ford, Lincoln)

210,000

193,080

8.8%

14.3%

14.7%

-0.4%

Chrysler Group (Chrysler, Dodge, FIAT, Jeep, RAM)

172,000

140,102

22.8%

11.7%

10.7%

1.1%

American Honda (Acura, Honda)

151,000

141,439

6.8%

10.3%

10.8%

-0.5%

Hyundai-Kia

126,000

115,009

9.6%

8.6%

8.8%

-0.2%

Nissan North America (Infiniti, Nissan)

125,000

109,041

14.6%

8.5%

8.3%

0.2%

Volkswagen Group (Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche)

54,000

52,663

2.5%

3.7%

4.0%

-0.3%

Total 3

1,465,000

1,312,991

11.6%

-

-

-

1 Historical data from OEM sales announcements

           

2 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

           

3 Includes brands not shown

Sales Volume 1

Market Share

Segment

Jul-14

Jul-13

YOY %

Jul-14

Jul-13

YOY %

Compact Car

221,000

205,182

7.7%

15.1%

15.6%

-0.5%

Mid-Size Car

205,000

192,486

6.5%

14.0%

14.7%

-0.7%

Compact SUV/Crossover

178,000

155,717

14.3%

12.2%

11.9%

0.3%

Full-Size Pickup Truck

174,000

163,091

6.7%

11.9%

12.4%

-0.5%

Entry-level Luxury Car

69,000

63,538

8.6%

4.7%

4.8%

-0.1%

Total 2

1,465,000

1,312,991

11.6%

-

-

-

1 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

           

2 Includes segments not shown

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