New EV car-sharing schemes could offer carmakers a path to avoiding EU fines that will be levied on companies that fail to achieve tighter average CO2 emissions targets in 2021.

Analysts forecast that most volume carmakers will fail to hit their EU CO2 fleet average emissions targets in 2021, and will therefore incur billions of Euros in fines (EUR95 per g/km of CO2 over the target, per vehicle sold). Next year, each EV registered in the EU will count double in the fleet average emissions calculations. This provides an incentive for carmakers to register EVs, and significantly reduce the level of fines. For example, an OEM selling 800,000 cars in the EU could reduce its fines by EUR90m if it registered 5,000 EVs, according to a just-published White Paper commissioned by carshare software specialist Vulog.

The PA Consulting Group expects just four of the 11 big carmakers – Volvo, JLR, Toyota and Renault-Nissan – to meet their individual CO2 requirements. They predict that VW Group, Fiat-Chrysler, PSA, Ford, BMW, Hyundai-Kia and Daimler will all miss their targets. The VW Group could be fined up to EUR1.4bn.

The White Paper commissioned by Vulog suggests that reducing fleet average emissions through the introduction of new electric models and increasing the sales of low and zero emission vehicles offers a highly realistic and accessible contribution to the strategies of those carmakers seeking to avoid or limit looming fees.

The paper argues that launching EV carsharing services within the EU should be seriously considered as a powerful strategic option for OEMs, not only to avoid potential fines, but also to 'market new EV models in an innovative way.

The Vulog White Paper also suggests that European consumers are still hesitant about buying new EV models in significant numbers. While they are curious about EVs, European consumers are not quite ready to foot the bill for EVs, it says.

See also: Carmakers may 'alter sales mix' in Europe ahead of 2021 - analyst