In September, ASEAN Light Vehicle (LV) sales decreased by 8% YoY, marking the 14th consecutive month of decline. As such, the regional YTD sales performance represents a 7% YoY loss, although this is an improvement from the 11% YoY decline in Q1 2024 and an 8% YoY decrease for H1 2024.
This slight uptick was largely due to the recovery in LV demand in the Vietnamese market. Vietnam’s LV sales began the year with a 9% YoY decline in Q1 2024, as demand was impacted by the pull-ahead effect from the previous round of the temporary registration fee reduction scheme, which expired at the end of 2023. Additionally, consumer and business confidence remained weak amidst the country’s property crisis. However, the market began to improve in April, with LV sales rising by 9% YoY and 33% YoY in Q2 and Q3 2024, respectively. Consequently, Vietnam’s LV sales have now increased by 12% YoY from January to September. The turning point was supported by several factors, including the stabilization of the real estate crisis; a strong rebound in the country’s large export and export-driven manufacturing sectors; a booming tourism sector; and attractive sales campaigns offered by carmakers to boost demand. Moreover, the government has reintroduced the much-anticipated 50% registration fee reduction scheme. This temporary scheme is valid for three months, from September 1 to November 30. As a result, Vietnam’s sales skyrocketed by 50% YoY in September.
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Based on stronger-than-expected September volumes and an improving economic outlook, we have made minor upward adjustments to the 2024-26 forecast. Sales are now expected to increase by 9% to 412k units this year and by 3% to 422k units in 2025.
For the rest of ASEAN5, Malaysia’s LV sales began to decline by 0.1% YoY in August and by 12% YoY in September. Based on registration data, October sales are estimated to have lowered by 6% YoY for the third consecutive month. The weak result in September was mainly due to poor sales of national brands, Perodua and Proton, while the drop in October was largely attributable to sluggish sales of non-national brands, particularly Toyota and Honda. However, the YTD performance remains positive at 4% YoY. The 2024 and 2025 sales forecasts have been increased based on stronger-than-expected Passenger Vehicle (PV) volumes and new model launches. As a result, 2024 sales are now projected to reach a new record high of 808k units, before slowing to 752k units in 2025, due to a) Perodua’s backlogged orders being mostly fulfilled this year; b) consumers’ purchasing power being constrained by high interest rates and household debt; and c) the central bank not being expected to cut interest rates soon, as the government plans to rationalize subsidies and inflation is projected to rise. Moreover, the protectionist US trade policy under the new Trump administration poses a significant threat to Malaysia’s export-dependent economy and, consequently, vehicle sales.
For Indonesia, the GAIKINDO report indicated that LV sales in September declined by 9% YoY and 4% MoM. According to local reports, October sales continued to drop by 4% YoY. Consequently, the Indonesian LV market is estimated to have fallen by 15% YoY from January to October 2024. Due to the negative sentiment, the country’s short-term outlook has been lowered and is now projected at 792k units (-15% YoY) for 2024 and 863k units (+9% YoY) for 2025. However, the forecast faces downside risks due to the slowing economy and the expectation of protectionist trade policies from US President Trump.
In Thailand, the automotive association reported that LV demand fell by 37% YoY in September, and our advanced data indicates that demand continues to struggle, dropping by 35% YoY in October. As a result, the Thai LV market fell by 26% YoY from January to October. The sluggish sales in both months were largely impacted by severe floods that affected much of the country’s north and northeast and have caused significant damage to infrastructure, agriculture and tourism. Local research companies estimate that the losses from the floods could amount to THB30-50 billion ($0.9-1.4 billion), equivalent to 0.16-0.27% of GDP. This has led us to lower Thailand’s LV sales outlook, and we now project a drop of 25% YoY to 568k units in 2024, the lowest total since 2009.
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By GlobalDataIn the Philippines, the LV market grew by 9% YoY from January to August. The market slightly increased by 2% YoY and 1% MoM in September as consumers held off on purchasing, waiting for new model launches and sales campaigns at the 9th Philippine International Motor Show. September volumes were in line with our expectations. As such, the forecast remains unchanged, except for a minor upward adjustment in 2024, with sales projected to expand by 6% to an all-time high of 463k units this year. However, in 2025, volumes are expected to decline by 2% to 453k units, as the current robust pace is unlikely to be sustainable.
As a result, ASEAN 2024 total sales have been raised from 3.02 mn units to 3.04 million units, thanks to the upward projections in Vietnam and Malaysia. However, this latest forecast still represents an 8% decline from last year.
This article was first published on GlobalData’s dedicated research platform, the Automotive Intelligence Center.
