Blog: Strong rebound in US?
Dave Leggett | 10 August 2009
There were some interesting comments from analyst Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley about where he thinks the US light vehicle market could be headed in 2010. 12.8m units? I guess that is a pretty strong rebound on around 11m units this year, if not exactly cause to break into a chorus of 'let the good times roll'. At least the sky hasn't quite fallen in.
I would expect him to be pretty confident before giving a forecast like that, which is significantly above some of the others I have seen.
If it's 12.8m for the year, there's an implied SAAR that could well be up towards 14m by the end of the year.
There is still the small matter of the recession - far from over - working through and the fact that lending by the banks is going to be way off where it was a few years ago. Can sentiment turn around that quickly? I reckon 12.8m in 2010 looks a little high, but it will be interesting to see where the forecasts go over the next few months.
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