Blog: Dave LeggettDollar to plunge?

Dave Leggett | 9 June 2005

Do you ever use a website (Brit-based) called Cantos? They have business interviews on there and you have a choice of format - audio, streaming video, or simply read the interview transcript. Sometimes there are auto industry execs being interviewed and occasionally there is more general business/economics stuff of interest. It is worth knowing about. Oh, and it's free. I think you just have to register with them. 

I receive their e-mail alerts and I have just had one that is a bit worrying re prospects for the dollar over the next twelve months. Most people I have spoken too recently on the subject of the dollar - including a man in the hedging department of a major German vehicle maker - have said that they believe dollar weakness has bottomed and that they expect to see some significant dollar recovery over the next 24 months or so.

But the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) is cautioning that further dollar weakness is in prospect. I used to talk to Robin Bew regularly when I worked at the EIU and he certainly seemed to know his onions when it came to trends in the world economy.

Maybe the euro stays weak also judging by what he is saying about Germany and Italy also - perhaps cancelling out some of the dollar weakness pain for the German OEMs. Anyway, here's what the Cantos mail alert says (listen to the interview by clicking on below link to Cantos h/page and navigating to interview via link on top-right of the page):

Dollar to plunge on deficit fears
- Video interview with Robin Bew, Chief Economist, EIU
- Robin Bew warns that the dollar is set for further falls during the
next 12-14 months over concerns about the growing US current account
deficit. He adds that Chinese economic growth will slow over the next
24 months, whilst in Europe, Germany faces further woes and the
Italian outlook is "particularly bleak".



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