Dave Leggett

Detroit seen through the eyes of money men

By: Dave Leggett - 23 June 2009 12:06

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Breakingviews.com is an online publisher with a mission that can be summarised as getting the 'what does it actually mean?' area of news analysis as quickly as possible to its clients who are mainly made up of banks, financial institutions and hedge funds people. It has offices in New York and London. Their 'views' are a timely input to subsequent actions by people mainly working in or for the money markets.

We have had some contact with the guys there, prompted by seeing a few insightful articles related to the automotive industry. We republished an article from them on just-auto a couple of months ago: COMMENT: Fundamental problem

Anyway, they have bundled their articles written about General Motors over the last few years into a kind of   compendium – or pdf 'book'. It's an interesting read, chronicling GM's slow descent into Chapter 11 and their take on it. Their financial world perspectives make for some interesting observations and deductions. And they write well and clearly.

Here's an extract (the last para very neatly summarises Washington's dilemma):

So for taxpayers to be made whole, the new mini-GM would have to produce earnings sufficient to support an enterprise value of at least $95bn - the sum of a $69bn market cap and its $26bn of consolidated debt and preferred stock. Using market valuation multiples of five times profits, that means New GM must generate ebitda somewhere in the order of $19bn annually.

That would require boosting annual sales to some $150bn - almost 50% more than the entire company is expected to generate this year - and matching the whopping 14% ebitda margin that Toyota achieved in its best year ever. It requires a vast leap of faith – or an audacity of hope – to believe that can happen.

Of course, the US government is not a professional money manager. The decision before it was not whether to invest either in GM or another business that would generate an acceptable return. It had to weigh up two unpalatable choices: throw taxpayers' money onto GM's bonfire in the hope an expedited trip through the Chapter 11 mechanic's shop would produce a souped-up, successful carmaker; or risk having to mop up a bigger mess if a liquidated GM brought the entire US car sector down with it.

The full 'Detroit Do-Over' pdf is downloadable free-of-charge and in a jiffy by clicking the below link.

Detroit Do-Over pdf

Comments on this blog post

Always good to see other conjecture, please keep it up BreakingView! However, with all due respect, cannot concur that the (previously) proposed marriage of GM-Chrysler would have led to a better outcome. Much depends on detail of course, but it could have simply created intransigent UAW & Management stances against Washington for extensive bail-out cash and protectionist conditions that would have kept the innate uncompetitive structure of US Autos little changed. Yet another sticking plaster scenario instead of the required surgery. In truth, from the moment Cerberus bought Chrysler, with then liquid capital markets, it should have structured a divestment of its 3 'in-house' divisions to Eastern trade-buyers or foreign private equity; ideally leaving the then Chrysler LLC company as a 'Brand Broker' to western markets. Whilst such talks were undertaken, it was not a seller's market, yet even so, with such a sale Cerberus & Chrysler would have come out far better than it has to date. Cerberus with valuable liquidity, Chrysler further down the road of non-interventionist re-structuring and in a better position for debt or new equity re-financing. However the FIAT-Chrysler deal -given the 'legacy restrictions' - at least puts Chrysler on a better path, even if not perhaps the perfect one for speedy divisional specific re-invention.(Great deal for FIAt though). As for GM, the uphill struggle of the credit-meltdown has tested and (happily) stalled the value-destruction motor; demonstrating the need of a strip-down and overhaul. New GM and the 'Back to Basics' agenda will promote extensive consideration at every level of the business by Alix and Evercore, so justifying their fees. The trouble is that the basic tenants of a good commercial path for New GM will probably clash with the ideals/expectations of its new major stakeholders. The hard to swallow recommendations will however put some sense of value-creation back into the company and importantly give the capital markets confidence. An important question is how possible synergies can be formed between FIAT-Chrysler and New GM at the supplier-level, for the massive potential of sector-consolidation promoting lower cost common systems synergies will be key to re-vitalising the profitability of the 2 new US Auto companies. Thus expect Alix & Evercore to be focusing heavily on supply chain financing, creating a stable financial platform from which to plan and deliver operational efficiencies.

 

Turan Ahmed - investment-auto-motives, United Kingdom

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