According to our calculation, and after adding sales of CBU imports, vehicle sales in China had already overtaken sales in Japan by a very narrow margin (around 42,000 units) in 2005. In 2006, the surge in sales in China combined with declines in Japan meant that there is now no doubt that China was the second largest vehicle market in the world, and its lead over Japan was extended to around 1.58 million units.

We are currently expecting total vehicle sales to exceed the 10m unit mark in 2009. Fundamentals are still very positive but a moderation in growth rates from high base levels is inevitable. Overall, we expect total vehicle sales to rise by 10.2% in 2009 and growth rates to drop below 10% after that. Our base scenario forecasts 12.6 million units in 2012 and 17.3 million units in 2018.

1. Macro-economic background

2. History of the vehicle market in China

3. Infrastructure

4. Vehicle market in China

4.1. Total light vehicle demand
4.2. Passenger car demand
4.3. Light commercial vehicle demand
4.4. Outlook for light vehicle production
4.5. Vehicle parc and density
4.6. Key demand drivers
4.7. Auto finance
4.8. Passenger car market segmentation trends

5. Regulation

5.1. Intellectual property
5.2. Import duties
5.3. Emissions
5.4. Safety

6. Importance of China for the automotive industry

7. Structure of the OEM sector

7.1. Background
7.2. Geographical spread
7.3. Implications of the joint venture rule
7.4. The market in 2007
7.5. Medium to long term forecast

8. Platform strategies

9. Sourcing

10. Structure of the supplier industry

10.1. Background
10.2. The influence of the OEMs
10.3. Implications for the suppliers
10.4. Scenario for the structural changes in the supplier industry in China
10.5. Airbag modules as an example for the evolution of the supply chains in China

Chinese Supplier Profiles

Aeolus
Aisin Seiki Co
ArvinMeritor
ATG Piston Ring Co
Autoliv
Behr
BorgWarner
Bosch
Brose
Changcha
China Automotive
China Spring Corp
China VIE Group
China Wheel Co
CITIC Manufacturing Co
Continental
CRH
Cummins
Dalian Diesel
Dana
Delphi
Denso
Dong'an Engine
Dongfeng Bus Chassis Co
Dongfeng Chaoyang Diesel Engine Co
Dongfeng Electronic Technology Co
Dongfeng Wheel Co
Eberspaecher
Faurecia
Federal Mogul
Fujian Longxi Bearing
GKN
Goodyear
Hafei Manufacturing
Hangzhou Advance Gearbox Group
Hangzhou Engine Co
Hangzhou Westlake Group
Hangzhou ZhongCe Rubber Co
Hefei Axle Co
Hella
Hyundai MOBIS
Jiangsu Sida Group_Leia
Jiangsu Sihong Co
Jilin Dongguang Group
Jinan Commercial Vehicle Co
Jinzhou Halla
Johnson Controls
JTEKT
Kunming Yunnei Power Co
Lear
Leoni
Longkou Xingmin Wheel Co
Magna Leia
Magneti Marelli
Mando
Michelin
MiTAC
Nanchang Changli Steel
Nanping Sun Cable Co
NHK Spring
Nordson
Pilkington
Plastal
Prestolite
Qingdao Yellow Sea Rubber Group
Quanchai
Ruiming
Sanhua Holding Group
Shaanxi Fast Group
Shandong Binzhou Piston Co
Shandong Laidong Engine Co
Shandong Linglong Rubber Co
Shanghai Delphi
Shanghai Koito Lamp
Shenyang Aerospace Mitsubishi Engine Co
Shenyang Xinguang Group
South China Tire Co
Sumitomo Electric
Takata
Tenneco
ThyssenKrupp
Tianjin Kahou Co
TRW
TS Tech
Valeo
Visteon
Wangfeng Group
Webasto
Wuxi Diesel Engine
Wuxi Weifu
Yangfeng Visteon
Yuchai
ZF Sachs AG
Zhejiang Jinfei
Zhejiang Yinlun

List of Figures

Figure 1 The first Jiefang model of 1956
Figure 2 Hongqi CA770
Figure 3 Hongqi CA71
Figure 4 Shanghai SH 760
Figure 5 International OEMs in China
Figure 6 Light vehicle production in China 1996 to 2008
Figure 7 Top five countries with most expressways
Figure 8 Current situation of suppliers
Figure 9 New regional markets
Figure 10 Export to China versus production in China
Figure 11 Cluster OEMs 2007 ¨C 2010
Figure 12 Cluster OEMs 2025
Figure 13 Interrelationship of the OEMs
Figure 14 Geographical spread of the OEMs
Figure 15 China's top 16 passenger vehicle makers 2008
Figure 16 The top ten best selling passenger vehicles in China 2008
Figure 17 Passenger vehicle sales 2006 to 2012 by segment
Figure 18 Portfolio of the OEMs by segments and platforms
Figure 19 OEM by platform origin 2007
Figure 20 Structure of the supplier industry
Figure 21 Development of the value chain in China

List of Tables

Table 1 Outlook for vehicle sales (thousand units)
Table 2 Car Sales by Manufacturer
Table 3 Mini vehicle Market: Manufacturer Performance (Thousand units)
Table 4 Outlook for Vehicle Production (thousand units)
Table 5 Vehicle Parc (thousand units) and Car Density
Table 6 Breakdown by Segment
Table 7 Several generations of platforms at Volkswagen