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Automotive markets outlook - Management briefing (download)

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Wherever you look in the world's automotive industry, 2009 is proving to be a tough one. Indeed, the scale of the downturn in automotive markets and the impact on vehicle and parts producers, coming after a period of prolonged boom, is unprecedented. However, an even more serious financial meltdown and the worst scenarios for the world's economy were successfully averted. The world's financial system – if not healed – is at least partially functioning and not in imminent danger of collapse. The purpose of this briefing is to provide a review of the latest major developments in automotive markets alongside an assessment of prospects. As the industry prepares for the 2010 model year, there is at least a growing conviction that the worst of the uncertainties that governed the first half of 2009 are behind us.

Automotive markets outlook - Management briefing (download)

Introduction
Global economic overview
‘W-shaped’ recession coming?

The US automotive market
Market bottom reached
‘Cash for Clunkers’
Pent-up demand ‘building’, but it’s a shallow upturn
Manufacturer shares face volatility
North American vehicle production collapses

Europe
Do you want your jam today or tomorrow?
And saturation in mature markets constrains growth in medium-term
Mixed national markets
Small car boost may go into reverse in 2010
European production rise later this year could be a false dawn
Rationalisation ahead – but how much?

Japan

The BRICs
China gets big fiscal stimulus boost
India’s economic growth pauses – but tax cuts help autos
Russia’s depleted car market may feel relief from economic growth later this year
Brazil presents a bright domestic picture

ASEAN

List of tables
Table 1: IMF projections – world economic outlook, 2007-2010 (% change)
Table 2: US light vehicle sales, 2005-2012 (m units)
Table 3: West Europe car sales, 2005-2009 (m units)

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