Executive Summary
Introduction and report outline
The future of automotive materials consumption
Drivers for change
What makes change happen?
Climate change, carbon emissions, and fuel economy
Climate change at an international level
Climate change at a national level
Sub-national measures
Economic conditions and changes in market structure
The limits to growth
Conclusions
Technologies and materials
Introduction
Materials use and the contemporary car
Materials use and car technologies
Long term perspectives
Supply chains
Introduction
Sourcing strategies and the automotive industry
Commodity prices and the automotive industry
The steel industry
The aluminium industry
The plastic industry
Rubber
Forecasts to 2020
Introduction
Calculating the 2005 base year materials consumption
The forecast assumptions: business as usual scenario
The forecast outcomes: business as usual scenario
The alternative scenarios: eco-austerity and technopia
Conclusions
The overall material demand forecast
Materials demand and the supply industry
The key outcomes
List of Figures
Table 1.1: Total material demand in the automotive sector by main region, 2005 base (million tonnes per annum - mtpa)
Table 1.2: A comparison of the relative materials content of three types of car: steel; aluminium; and plastic (%)
Table 1.3: A comparison of the relative materials content of three types of powertrain: conventional; hybrid and pure battery electric (%)
Table 1.4: Material choice criteria
Table 2.1: Three future scenarios for the automotive industry
Table 2.2: Prices for crude petroleum, US$ per barrel (unadjusted), selected years
Table 2.3: Coverage of global warming themes in the New Scientist, 2004 and 2005
Figure 2.1: The proportion of New Scientist coverage
Figure 2.2: Likely proportion of the 140g/km target to be reached by the top 20 brands by 2008/09, if current trends continue
Table 2.4: Fuel economy and greenhouse gas emissions regimes around the world
Table 2.5: Actual and projected greenhouse gas emissions for new passenger vehicles by country, 2002, 2008 and 2014 (CO2 equivalent converted to EU NEDC test cycle; g/km)
Table 2.6: Japanese fuel economy targets for 2015: light duty passenger cars
Table 2.7: The proposed changes to the London congestion charging scheme
Table 2.8: Market share of the top ten models, selected markets, 1996 and 2006
Table 2.9 Segment market share in the UK: 1992 and 2007
Table 2.10 Brands, models, body styles and variants on the UK market, 1994 to 2008
Table 2.11: Passenger transport in Hong Kong
Table 2.12: Road deaths in 2003: absolute number and per 100,000 of population; selected countries
Table 2.13: Death rates and car ownership rates in selected countries
Table 3.1: Material proportions, ELVs in the UK in 2006
Table 3.2: Materials use in the average US family car, 1978, 1995 and 2003 (%)
Table 3.3: The proportion of vehicle mass attributable to different systems
Table 3.4: Inter-generational weight gain: the example of the VW Golf
Figure 3.1: Weight gain for European mid-range cars, 1970 onwards
Table 3.5: Logan production by assembly plant, H1 2007 and H1 2008
Table 3.6 Worldwide Logan sales, H1 2006, H1 2007 and H1 2008
Table 3.7: Mass-market and super-luxury cars: a simple comparison
Table 3.8: The constituent technologies of the e-Terrain Technology Concept
Table 3.9: Technical specification of the 2000 Toyota Prius II
Table 3.10: The Toyota Prius battery pack: technical specifications
Figure 3.2: The Toyota Prius battery pack
Table 3.11: Specification of the G-Wiz electric car
Table 3.12 Aluminium penetration in vehicle body applications, 2007 (%)
Table 3.13: A comparison of the relative materials content of three types of car: steel; aluminium; and plastic (%)
Table 3.14: A comparison of the relative materials content of three types of powertrain: conventional; hybrid; and pure battery electric (%)
Table 4.1: Transitions in vehicle manufacturers' sourcing strategies
Table 4.2: Material choice criteria
Table 4.3: Regional share of copper production
Table 4.4: Industrial consumption, copper
Diagram 4.1 Copper prices 2000 to 2008
Table 4.5: Regional share of aluminium production
Table 4.6: Industrial consumption, aluminium
Diagram 4.2 Aluminium prices 2000 to 2008
Table 4.7: Regional share of lead production
Table 4.8: Industrial consumption, lead
Diagram 4.3 Lead prices 2000 to 2008
Table 4.9: Regional share of zinc production
Table 4.10: Industrial consumption, zinc
Diagram 4.4: Zinc prices 2000 to 2008
Table 4.11: Regional share of nickel production
Table 4.12: Industrial consumption, nickel
Diagram 4.5 Nickel prices 2000 to 2008
Table 4.13: Regional share of tin production
Table 4.14: Industrial consumption, tin
Diagram 4.6 Tin prices 2000 to 2008
Table 4.15: The leading steel producing countries, 2006 and 2007
Figure 4.1: Share of world crude steel production: 2001, 2006, 2007
Table 4.16: The top 20 steel companies, 1996 (crude steel output, mtpa)
Table 4.17: The top 20 steel companies, 2006 (crude steel output, mtpa)
Table 4.18: Consumption of aluminium worldwide, 2005-2008 (mtpa)
Table 4.19: World rubber supply and demand, 2006 and 2007 (000 tonnes)
Table 5.1: Assumptions of average materials content per car, 2005 base (%)
Table 5.2: Assumptions of average materials content per car, 2005 base (kg)
Table 5.3: Material yield assumptions, 2005 base year calculation
Table 5.4: Material consumed per car, adjusted for material yield, 2005 base (kg)
Table 5.5: Total material demand by main region, 2005 base (mtpa)
Table 5.6: Three future scenarios for the automotive industry
Table 5.7: Market growth forecasts to 2020 (m units): business as usual scenario
Table 5.8: Average steel intensive vehicle weight forecasts, business as usual scenario (kg)
Table 5.9: Europe business as usual scenario mix of vehicle forecasts (% share)
Table 5.10: North America cars business as usual scenario mix of vehicle forecasts (% share)
Table 5.11: North America trucks business as usual scenario mix of vehicle forecasts (% share)
Table 5.12: Asia business as usual scenario mix of vehicle forecasts (% share)
Table 5.13: Other markets business as usual scenario mix of vehicle forecasts (% share)
Table 5.14: Forecast material yield assumptions for 2015 and 2020
Table 5.15: Steel intensive cars forecast to 2020, business as usual scenario (m units)
Table 5.16: Aluminium intensive cars forecast to 2020, business as usual scenario (m units)
Table 5.17: Plastic intensive cars forecast to 2020, business as usual scenario (m units)
Table 5.18: Hybrid cars forecast to 2020, business as usual scenario (m units)
Table 5.19: Battery electric cars forecast to 2020, business as usual scenario (m units)
Table 5.20: Assumptions of average materials content per steel intensive car, 2010 (%)
Table 5.21: Assumptions of average materials content per steel intensive car, 2015 (%)
Table 5.22: Assumptions of average materials content per steel intensive car, 2020 (%)
Table 5.23: Forecast average materials content per steel intensive car, 2010 (kg)
Table 5.24: Forecast average materials content per steel intensive car, 2015 (kg)
Table 5.25: Forecast average materials content per steel intensive car, 2020 (kg)
Table 5.26: Forecast total materials consumption per steel intensive car adjusted for material yield, 2010 (kg)
Table 5.27: Forecast total materials consumption per steel intensive car adjusted for material yield, 2015 (kg)
Table 5.28: Forecast total materials consumption per steel intensive car adjusted for material yield, 2020 (kg)
Table 5.29: Forecast total materials consumption for all steel intensive cars adjusted for material yield, 2010 (mtpa)
Table 5.30: Forecast total materials consumption for all steel intensive cars adjusted for material yield, 2015 (mtpa)
Table 5.31: Forecast total materials consumption for all steel intensive cars adjusted for material yield, 2020 (mtpa)
Table 5.32: World materials consumption for all steel intensive cars adjusted for material yield (mtpa)
Table 5.33: Materials content of different types of car: aluminium; plastic; hybrid; and battery electric, adjusted for materials yield (kg)
Table 5.34: World materials consumption for aluminium intensive cars adjusted for material yield (mtpa)
Table 5.35: World materials consumption for plastic intensive cars adjusted for material yield (mtpa)
Table 5.36: World materials consumption for hybrid cars adjusted for material yield (mtpa)
Table 5.37: World materials consumption for battery electric cars adjusted for material yield (mtpa)
Table 5.38: World materials consumption for all non-steel intensive cars adjusted for material yield (mtpa)
Table 5.39: Total world materials consumption for all cars adjusted for material yield (mtpa)
Table 6.1: Total world materials consumption for all cars adjusted for material yield (mtpa)
