ANALYSIS: PSA to post 2009 H2 operating profit – analyst
Recent PSA model launches include seven seat Peugeot 5008 crossover
PSA Peugeot Citroen is set to announce that it returned to a small operating profit in the second half of 2009 when it announces its full-year results tomorrow (February 10) according to an analyst speaking to just-auto today.
"We expect a small operating profit in the second half, though there will be a big operating loss for the full year," said Creative Global Investments analyst Sabine Blümel.
She forecasts a second half group operating profit of EUR71m and an EUR755m operating loss for the full year.
At the auto division she expects that a reported 7.2% decline in sales (to 2.57m assembled vehicles at the fully-consolidated group companies) resulted in an EUR1.15bn operating loss in 2009 (which compares with an operating loss of EUR251m in 2008.
For the second half of 2009, she predicts a much reduced loss for the auto division of EUR246m, after EUR904m in the first half of 2009 and an EUR884m deficit in the second half of 2008.
"The automotive division benefited from government incentive programmes and and a ramp-up in production following de-stocking in the previous nine months, although pricing, mix and currency continued to be negative factors during the second half," she said.
Blümel also expressed the hope that PSA management will give a progress report on the discussions with Mitsubishi regarding a strategic partnership as well as more details on the pre-emptive recall of 97,000 PSA cars that share a platform with the Toyota Aygo.
She was cautious about the earnings outlook for PSA and said she expects only a slow earnings recovery in 2010 and 2011, noting that the West European car market will contract by some 10% this year due to the withdrawal of government incentives in key markets.
However, she said that ongoing cost cutting, new models, and no further need to reduce inventories should lead to a reduced operating loss of EUR 291m at the auto division in 2010.