Hurricane Sandy aftermath boosted US sales

US: Hurricane Sandy aftermath boosted sales - analyst

By Graeme Roberts | 30 November 2012

Car sales deferred and created by Hurricane Sandy helped to get the US auto industry back on track in November, according to Edmunds.com, which forecast that 1,107,378 new cars and trucks will be sold for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 15m, a strong increase over October’s SAAR of 14.3m.

Earlier this month, insurers estimated the storm, which hit the north-east of the US particularly hard, had damaged about 230,000 vehicles.

“The fact that November sales have bounced back from a sluggish October suggests that those who lost cars or who deferred purchases after Hurricane Sandy are already getting back on the road,” said senior analyst Jessica Caldwell. “Fortunately for these buyers, they entered a market in which holiday and year-end deals were in full swing and loan rates hovered near all-time lows.”

The hurricane affected a region of the country that accounts for about 20% of all new car sales, and as a result about 30,000 sales were either lost or deferred in October. In addition, Edmunds reckons 200,000 to 250,000 vehicles were damaged or destroyed by Sandy leading to an estimated 65,000 to 80,000 replacement new cars or trucks.

Edmunds reckons November’s sales will rise 1.4% over October 2012 and 11.3% year on year. Retail SAAR will be 12.6m in November with fleet deals accounting for 15.9% of total sales.

Show the press release

Aftermath of Hurricane Sandy Boosts November Car Sales, Says Edmunds.com

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — November 29, 2012 — Car sales deferred and created by Hurricane Sandy helped to get the auto industry back on track in November, reports Edmunds.com, the premier resource for automotive information. Edmunds.com forecasts that 1,107,378 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in November for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 15.0 million, a strong increase over October’s SAAR of 14.3 million.

“The fact that November sales have bounced back from a sluggish October suggests that those who lost cars or who deferred purchases after Hurricane Sandy are already getting back on the road,” says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “Fortunately for these buyers, they entered a market in which holiday and year-end deals were in full swing and loan rates hovered near all-time lows.”

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Sales Volume	November 2012 Forecast	November 2011	October 2012	Change from November 2011	Change from October 2012
GM	190,236	180,402	195,764	5.5%	-2.8%
Ford	171,887	166,865	168,456	3.0%	2.0%
Toyota	162,250	137,960	155,242	17.6%	4.5%
Chrysler Group	120,965	107,172	126,185	12.9%	-4.1%
Honda	112,354	83,925	106,973	33.9%	5.0%
Nissan	88,573	85,182	79,685	4.0%	11.2%
Industry	1,107,378	994,619	1,092,057	11.3%	1.4%

*NOTE: November 2012 had 25 selling days, November 2011 had 25 and October 2012 had 26.

As Edmunds.com reported earlier this month, the hurricane affected a region of the country that accounts for about 20 percent of all new car sales, and as a result about 30,000 sales were either lost or deferred in October. In addition, 200,000 to 250,000 vehicles were damaged or destroyed by Sandy, of which Edmunds.com estimates 65,000 to 80,000 will be replaced with new cars or trucks.

Edmunds.com estimates that November’s sales will be a 1.4 percent increase from October 2012, and an 11.3 percent increase from November 2011. Retail SAAR will come in at 12.6 million vehicles in November, with fleet transactions accounting for 15.9 percent of total sales. An estimated 2.79 million used cars will be sold in November, for a SAAR of 37.7 million (compared to 3.07 million – or a SAAR of 36.8 million – used car sales in October).

AUTOMAKER PERFORMANCE

Edmunds.com projects that GM and Chrysler will lose the most market share month-over-month among the Big Six manufacturers in November, losing 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points, respectively. Nissan is expected to enjoy the biggest gain, with a 0.7 percentage point increase over October, thanks to the continued success of the new Nissan Altima.

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Market Share	November 2012 Forecast	November 2011	October 2012	Change from November 2011	Change from October 2012
GM	17.2%	18.1%	17.9%	-1.0%	-0.7%
Ford	15.5%	16.8%	15.4%	-1.3%	0.1%
Toyota	14.7%	13.9%	14.2%	0.8%	0.4%
Chrysler Group	10.9%	10.8%	11.6%	0.1%	-0.6%
Honda	10.1%	8.4%	9.8%	1.7%	0.4%
Nissan	8.0%	8.6%	7.3%	-0.6%	0.7%