Data cruncher Edmunds.com forecasts November US light vehicle sales at 1,196,663 units and an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.7m.

It is calling a 0.7% month on month fall from October 2013 but a 4.7% increase over November 2012.

JD Power and LMC Automotive forecast earlier SAAR would be in excess of 16m units in November as retail customers continued to drive sales up. 

US consumers were expected to spend more than US$30bn on new vehicles in November, a historic high for the month.

The two firms are close on November volume with JDP/LMC saying total light vehicle sales in November were expected to reach 1.2m, a 3% increase from November 2012.

"Consumer demand for new vehicles remains strong," said John Humphrey, senior vice president of the global automotive practice at JD Power.

“Any economic uncertainty that car shoppers might have felt in October seems to be a distant memory by now,” said Edmunds senior analyst Jessica Caldwell.

“Car buyers are already taking advantage of advertised holiday deals and as we plow deeper into the holiday season the table is set for 2013 to finish on a very strong note.”

Edmunds.com called retail SAAR at 13.3m vehicles for November with fleet deals taking 15% of total sales. It estimated 2.66m used cars would be sold in November, for a SAAR of 36.5m.

Chrysler sales were expected to rise 10% year on year with a 4% monthly fall. VW/Audi was projected to fall more than any other major automaker this month (-6.6%), even though it was expected to climb higher than any other automaker month to month (+10.8%).

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November Auto Sales Set the Tone for Final Stretch of 2013, Forecasts Edmunds.com


SANTA MONICA, Calif. — November 21, 2013 — Edmunds.com, the premier resource for car shopping and automotive information, forecasts that 1,196,663 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in November for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 15.7 million. The projected sales will be a 0.7 percent decrease from October 2013, but a 4.7 percent increase from November 2012.

 

“Any economic uncertainty that car shoppers might have felt in October seems to be a distant memory by now,” says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “Car buyers are already taking advantage of advertised holiday deals, and as we plow deeper into the holiday season the table is set for 2013 to finish on a very strong note.”


SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Sales Volume

Nov-13 Forecast

Nov-12

Oct-13

Change from Nov 2012*

Change from Oct 2013*

GM

200,783

186,505

226,402

7.7%

-11.3%

Ford

182,451

177,092

191,267

3.0%

-4.6%

Toyota

173,794

161,695

168,976

7.5%

2.9%

Chrysler Group

134,817

122,565

140,083

10.0%

-3.8%

Honda

114,687

116,580

114,538

-1.6%

0.1%

Nissan

99,589

96,197

91,018

3.5%

9.4%

Hyundai/Kia

93,493

94,542

93,309

-1.1%

0.2%

VW/Audi

45,571

48,795

41,130

-6.6%

10.8%

Industry

1,196,663

1,143,205

1,204,906

4.7%

-0.7%

*NOTE: November 2013 had 26 selling days, November 2012 had 25 and October 2013 had 27.

 

Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 13.3 million vehicles in November, with fleet transactions accounting for 15.0 percent of total sales. An estimated 2.66 million used cars will be sold in November, for a SAAR of 36.5 million (compared to 3.04 million – or a SAAR of 35.4 million – used car sales in October).

 

AUTOMAKER PERFORMANCE

Edmunds.com projects that Chrysler will enjoy the best year-over-year performance of any major automaker. Its sales are projected to climb 10 percent over November 2012, even though they’re expected to fall almost four percent from last month. Conversely, VW/Audi is projected to fall more than any other major automaker this month (-6.6 percent from November 2012), even though it is expected to climb higher than any other automaker month to month (+10.8 percent over October).

 

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Market Share

Nov-13 Forecast

Nov-12

Oct-13

Change from November 2012
(Percentage pts.)

Change from October 2013
(Percentage pts.)

GM

16.8%

16.3%

18.8%

0.5%

-2.0%

Ford

15.2%

15.5%

15.9%

-0.2%

-0.6%

Toyota

14.5%

14.1%

14.0%

0.4%

0.5%

Chrysler Group

11.3%

10.7%

11.6%

0.5%

-0.4%

Honda

9.6%

10.2%

9.5%

-0.6%

0.1%

Nissan

8.3%

8.4%

7.6%

-0.1%

0.8%

Hyundai/Kia

7.8%

8.3%

7.7%

-0.5%

0.1%

VW/Audi

3.8%

4.3%

3.4%

-0.5%

0.4%

 

Original source: Edmunds