Market analysts are predicting that June will be another strong month for the recovering US light vehicle market, driven by retail sales. 

Edmunds has joined the list of analysts expecting a June Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) well in excess of 15m units. 

Edmunds.com forecasts that 1,365,496 new cars and trucks will be sold in the US in June for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) this month of 15.5m light vehicles. Edmunds' projection would be be a 5.3% decrease from May, but a 6.3% increase from June 2012. It said that the forecast June total would be the biggest volume and SAAR for the month of June since 2007.

"Within the last month we saw a slowing stock market and a stalled unemployment recovery, but the automotive market continues to shine through it all," says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "The first half of 2013 was every bit as strong as the auto industry could expect at the beginning of the year, and there's no reason why the next six months can't maintain the same momentum."

More analyst views on the US June market

Show the press release

June Car Sales Cap a Strong First Half of 2013 for the Auto Industry, Reports Edmunds.com



SANTA MONICA, Calif., June 27, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Edmunds.com, the premier resource for car shopping and automotive information, forecasts that 1,365,496 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in June for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) this month of 15.5 million light vehicles. The projected sales will be a 5.3 percent decrease from May, but a 6.3 percent increase from June 2012. This month's sales performance is expected deliver the biggest volume and SAAR for the month of June since 2007.


"Within the last month we saw a slowing stock market and a stalled unemployment recovery, but the automotive market continues to shine through it all," says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "The first half of 2013 was every bit as strong as the auto industry could expect at the beginning of the year, and there's no reason why the next six months can't maintain the same momentum."

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER


                Sales Volume June 2013 Forecast      June 2012           May 2013           Change from June 2012*  Change from May 2013*

    GM                                       252,071             248,750            252,894                    1.3%                   -0.3%

    Ford                                     231,493             207,204            246,019                   11.7%                   -5.9%

    Toyota                                   190,247             177,795            207,952                    7.0%                   -8.5%

    Chrysler Group                           159,496             144,811            166,596                   10.1%                   -4.3%

    Honda                                    136,473             124,808            140,013                    9.3%                   -2.5%

    Hyundai/Kia                              111,829             115,139            120,685                   -2.9%                   -7.3%

    Nissan                                    98,952              92,237            114,457                    7.3%                  -13.5%

    VW/Audi                                   50,259              50,834             51,241                   -1.1%                   -1.9%

    Industry                               1,365,496           1,284,775          1,442,551                    6.3%                   -5.3%
*NOTE: June 2013 had 26 selling days, June 2012 had 27 and May 2013 had 26.

Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 12.7 million vehicles in June, with fleet transactions accounting for 18.4 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.07 million used cars will be sold in June, for a SAAR of 37.2 million (compared to 3.12 million - or a SAAR of 36.6 million - used car sales in May).

AUTOMAKER PERFORMANCE
Chrysler's spat with NHTSA over Jeep recalls earlier this month had some industry observers wondering how it would impact the brand's sales. In fact, Edmunds.com projects that Jeep sales will fall 5.0 percent year over year in June, but that could be attributed to the discontinued Liberty, which is being replaced by the Cherokee later this year. Chrysler's overall sales are projected to jump 10.1 percent this month over last year, thanks to a strong showing by Dodge and Ram, which are each expected to climb 25 percent this month.



MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER


                Market Share Jun-13 Forecast       Jun-12       May-13          Change from          Change from May 2013
                                                                                 June 2012             (Percentage pts.)
                                                                             (Percentage pts.)

    GM                                       18.5%        19.4%        17.5%                   -0.9%                       0.9%

    Ford                                     17.0%        16.1%        17.1%                    0.8%                      -0.1%

    Toyota                                   13.9%        13.8%        14.4%                    0.1%                      -0.5%

    Chrysler Group                           11.7%        11.3%        11.5%                    0.4%                       0.1%

    Honda                                    10.0%         9.7%         9.7%                    0.3%                       0.3%

    Hyundai/Kia                               8.2%         9.0%         8.4%                   -0.8%                      -0.2%

    Nissan                                    7.2%         7.2%         7.9%                    0.1%                      -0.7%

    VW/Audi                                   3.7%         4.0%         3.6%                   -0.3%                       0.1%
Meanwhile Hyundai and Kia did nothing to silence talk that the brands have peaked. Their 111,829 combined projected sales this month are off almost three percent from June of last year. VW/Audi (-1.1 percent) is the only other major automaker projected to report a decline in year-over-year sales in June.

More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in Edmunds.com's Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.

About Edmunds.com, Inc.
Edmunds.com is a car-shopping Web site committed to helping people find the car that meets their every need. Almost 18 million visitors use our research, shopping and buying tools every month to make an easy and informed decision on their next new or used car. Whether you're at the dealership or on the go, we're always by your side with our acclaimed Edmunds.com  iPhone and iPad apps and our Edmunds.com Android App. Our comprehensive car reviews, shopping tips, photos, videos and feature stories offer a friendly and authentic approach to the automotive world. We're based in Santa Monica, Calif., but you can connect with us from anywhere by following @Edmunds on Twitter or by becoming a fan of Edmunds.com on Facebook.

Original source: Edmunds