Vehicle sales in the ASEAN region's top six markets rose by 19.2% to 1.62m units in the first nine months of 2008, with most markets performing positively during this period.

Only Singapore reported lower new vehicle registrations, after peaking at record levels in 2005 and 2006. Vietnam and Indonesia reported the strongest growth, of 83% and 44% respectively, so far this year, with sales at record levels.

Vehicle sales in Malaysia and the Philippines also grew strongly during this period, by 12% and 20% respectively. Thailand's new vehicle sales shrank in the third quarter, however - after a strong first-half performance, and the market looks like it is heading for its third consecutive year of decline in 2008.

The global economic turmoil is beginning to affect consumer confidence in the region, and the outlook for exports has also deteriorated. But governments are preparing to increase spending to offset this weakness. Fourth-quarter vehicle sales will likely be flat-to-negative in most markets in the region. Nevertheless, full-year sales are expected to reach 2.05m units this year - close to the 2005 peak, but demand is likely to weaken significantly in 2009.

Thai vehicle sales declined by almost 12% in the third quarter of 2008 to 139,783 units after a strong first-half performance. This brings the cumulative nine-month volumes to 461,258 units, just 2.2% higher than a year earlier. The deteriorating market reflects falling consumer confidence as political turmoil continued to intensify and as the outlook for the global economy deteriorated.

Sales in September fell by 10.5%, with the all-important pick-up truck segment declining by 22.8% to 29,194 units. By contrast, passenger car sales rose by 19.1% to 18,687 units during the month. Market conditions are expected to remain tough into next year, as economic growth continues to weaken. The Bank of Thailand revised down its GDP growth forecast for 2008 to between 4.3%-5.0%, from 4.8%-5.8% previously, to reflect the deteriorating global economic environment. The vehicle market is heading for its third consecutive yearly decline this year, with full-year sales expected to drop by 2.5% to 615,000 units.

Vehicle sales in Indonesia grew by 44.4% in the third quarter of 2008, slightly slower than the 48% sales growth in the first-half. The economy this year has benefited from high commodity prices, rising exports values and strong domestic consumption. Consumers seemingly shrugged off the double-digit inflation and the sharp hikes in fuel prices in the third quarter and GDP growth is estimated to have grown by 6.5% in the first nine months.

Economic growth is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, however, as the global financial turmoil continues to spread and as demand for commodities drops. Full-year GDP growth is expected to be around 6% and growth is forecast will weaken further in 2009. Fourth-quarter growth in vehicle sales is expected to be much weaker, as signs of credit tightening emerge. This year will likely be a record year for the car market, however, with sales expected to reach 575,000 units - or 33% higher than last year.

Third-quarter vehicle sales in Malaysia rose by 10.5% to 151,940 units, as consumers shrugged off sharp rises in fuel prices and a jump in overall inflation during the quarter. Demand for newly released domestic models, such as the Proton Saga and Persona, have helped drive the market higher - by 20% to 429,913 units the first nine months of 2008.

Full-year economic growth is likely to fall to around 5% this year, with exports affected increasingly by falling commodity prices and lower overseas volume demand. Growth in domestic consumption is also expected to weaken in the fourth quarter.

Nevertheless, the vehicle market is heading for one of its best ever performances this year, with sales likely to reach 540-550,000 units.

Vehicle sales in the ASEAN region's top six markets rose by 19.2% to 1.62m units in the first nine months of 2008, with most markets performing positively during this period.

Only Singapore reported lower new vehicle registrations, after peaking at record levels in 2005 and 2006. Vietnam and Indonesia reported the strongest growth, of 83% and 44% respectively, so far this year, with sales at record levels.

Vehicle sales in Malaysia and the Philippines also grew strongly during this period, by 12% and 20% respectively. Thailand's new vehicle sales shrank in the third quarter, however - after a strong first-half performance, and the market looks like it is heading for its third consecutive year of decline in 2008.

The global economic turmoil is beginning to affect consumer confidence in the region, and the outlook for exports has also deteriorated. But governments are preparing to increase spending to offset this weakness. Fourth-quarter vehicle sales will likely be flat-to-negative in most markets in the region. Nevertheless, full-year sales are expected to reach 2.05m units this year - close to the 2005 peak, but demand is likely to weaken significantly in 2009.

Thai vehicle sales declined by almost 12% in the third quarter of 2008 to 139,783 units after a strong first-half performance. This brings the cumulative nine-month volumes to 461,258 units, just 2.2% higher than a year earlier. The deteriorating market reflects falling consumer confidence as political turmoil continued to intensify and as the outlook for the global economy deteriorated.

Sales in September fell by 10.5%, with the all-important pick-up truck segment declining by 22.8% to 29,194 units. By contrast, passenger car sales rose by 19.1% to 18,687 units during the month. Market conditions are expected to remain tough into next year, as economic growth continues to weaken. The Bank of Thailand revised down its GDP growth forecast for 2008 to between 4.3%-5.0%, from 4.8%-5.8% previously, to reflect the deteriorating global economic environment. The vehicle market is heading for its third consecutive yearly decline this year, with full-year sales expected to drop by 2.5% to 615,000 units.

Vehicle sales in Indonesia grew by 44.4% in the third quarter of 2008, slightly slower than the 48% sales growth in the first-half. The economy this year has benefited from high commodity prices, rising exports values and strong domestic consumption. Consumers seemingly shrugged off the double-digit inflation and the sharp hikes in fuel prices in the third quarter and GDP growth is estimated to have grown by 6.5% in the first nine months.

Economic growth is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, however, as the global financial turmoil continues to spread and as demand for commodities drops. Full-year GDP growth is expected to be around 6% and growth is forecast will weaken further in 2009. Fourth-quarter growth in vehicle sales is expected to be much weaker, as signs of credit tightening emerge. This year will likely be a record year for the car market, however, with sales expected to reach 575,000 units - or 33% higher than last year.

Third-quarter vehicle sales in Malaysia rose by 10.5% to 151,940 units, as consumers shrugged off sharp rises in fuel prices and a jump in overall inflation during the quarter. Demand for newly released domestic models, such as the Proton Saga and Persona, have helped drive the market higher - by 20% to 429,913 units the first nine months of 2008.

Full-year economic growth is likely to fall to around 5% this year, with exports affected increasingly by falling commodity prices and lower overseas volume demand. Growth in domestic consumption is also expected to weaken in the fourth quarter.

Nevertheless, the vehicle market is heading for one of its best ever performances this year, with sales likely to reach 540-550,000 units.

Tony Pugliese

 Vehicle sales in the ASEAN by market, 2004-08