September’s new light vehicle sales in the United States are expected to end a 27 month streak of year over year gains dating back to June 2011 due to a calendar anomaly, Edmunds.com forecast.

"While September’s sales look shaky on the surface, a calendar anomaly likely explains the decline: Labor Day weekend sales were included in September 2012, but Labor Day sales counted toward August in 2013," senior analyst Jessica Caldwell said. 

“It looks like sales took a big hit in September but the monthly SAAR is up year over year, and the industry is still selling more cars per day than it did last year,” she added.

“Many of the fundamentals that have driven strong car sales over the last year are still in place, and we can expect them to contribute to a solid final quarter to close out 2013.”

Edmunds.com predicts 1,143,968 new cars and trucks will be sold in the US in September for an estimated Seasonally SAAR of 15.3m. The projected sales will be a 23.8% decrease from August 2013 and a 3.7% decrease from September 2012.

Retail SAAR is forecast at 12.7m vehicles in September, with fleet transactions accounting for 17% of sales. An estimated 3.01m used cars will be sold in September for a SAAR of 36.2m (compared to 3.04m – or a SAAR of 36.8m – used car sales in August).

Kelley Blue Book (KBB), meanwhile, forecast a 1.8 year on year decline in September 2013 to a total of 1.17 m, off 22.2% compared with August. KBB has pegged September's SAAR at 15.7m, up from 14.7m in September 2012 and down from 16m in August 2013.

AUTOMAKER PERFORMANCE

Ford and Chrysler were the bright spots in a down month for automakers, according to Edmunds. Ford is expected to see a 5% sales increase in September, while Chrysler will see sales tick up 0.7%. VW/Audi and Hyundai/Kia, meanwhile, are projected to take the biggest hits in September, falling 15.6% and 15.2%, respectively, from September 2012.

KBB said Toyota and Honda would lead manufacturer growth in September.

"Honda will continue its momentum from a strong August 2013, when it posted a 27% gain year over year. While calendar quirks this month will limit Honda to single-digit growth, two of its three core products, the Civic and CR-V, are leading their respective segments this year. Toyota also is expected to post small gains in September as it launched the all new Corolla, which will challenge the Civic for the best selling small car this year. Domestic manufacturers are expected to post volume losses for the month; however, their combined market share of 44.4% will be slightly higher than last month and one year ago."

Compact crossovers will see the biggest growth of any segment, KBB added, "as sales are up 21.7% so far this year, fueled by redesigns of the Honda CR-V, Toyota RAV4 and Subaru Forester. While housing prices are starting to level out, housing construction and sales remain up, helping pickup truck sales accelerate into the fall season when sales are typically strong."

“In September 2013, KBB expects compact cars to surpass mid size cars as the leading segment for the first time since June 2011,” said analyst Tim Fleming.

“Over the past three months, compact car sales have soared 17.8% on the strength of the Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cruze and Hyundai Elantra, and the introduction of the new Toyota Corolla will bolster sales even more in this segment.”

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Calendar Abnormality Will Snap 27-Month Winning Streak for Auto Industry in September, Says Edmunds.com


SANTA MONICA, Calif. — September 26, 2013 — September’s auto sales are expected to snap a 27-month streak of year-over-year gains dating back to June 2011, forecasts Edmunds.com, the premier resource for car shopping and automotive information. And while September’s sales look shaky on the surface, a calendar anomaly likely explains the decline: Labor Day weekend sales were included in September 2012, but Labor Day sales counted toward August in 2013. 

“It looks like sales took a big hit in September, but the monthly SAAR is up year over year, and the industry is still selling more cars per day than it did last year,” says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “Many of the fundamentals that have driven strong car sales over the last year are still in place, and we can expect them to contribute to a solid final quarter to close out 2013.”

Edmunds.com predicts that 1,143,968 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in September for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 15.3 million. The projected sales will be a 23.8 percent decrease from August 2013, and a 3.7 percent decrease from September 2012.


SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Sales Volume

Sept-13 Forecast

Sept-12

Aug-13

Change from Sept 2012*

Change from Aug 2013*

GM

195,610

210,245

275,847

-7.0%

-29.1%

Ford

183,107

174,454

220,404

5.0%

-16.9%

Toyota

169,160

171,910

231,537

-1.6%

-26.9%

Chrysler Group

143,003

142,041

165,552

0.7%

-13.6%

Honda

111,359

117,211

166,432

-5.0%

-33.1%

Hyundai/Kia

91,672

108,130

118,126

-15.2%

-22.4%

Nissan

83,749

91,907

120,498

-8.9%

-30.5%

VW/Audi

41,074

48,641

54,347

-15.6%

-24.4%

Industry

1,143,968

1,188,107

1,500,428

-3.7%

-23.8%

*NOTE: September 2013 had 23 selling days, September 2012 had 25 and August 2013 had 28.

 

Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 12.7 million vehicles in September, with fleet transactions accounting for 17.0 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.01 million used cars will be sold in September for a SAAR of 36.2 million (compared to 3.04 million – or a SAAR of 36.8 million – used car sales in August).

AUTOMAKER PERFORMANCE

Ford and Chrysler were the bright spots in a down month for automakers. Ford is expected to see a five percent sales increase in September, while Chrysler will see sales tick up 0.7 percent. VW/Audi and Hyundai/Kia, meanwhile, are projected to take the biggest hits in September, falling 15.6 percent and 15.2 percent, respectively, from September 2012.

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

 

Market Share

Sept-13 Forecast

Sept-12

Aug-13

Change from September 2012
(Percentage pts.)

Change from August 2013
(Percentage pts.)

GM

17.1%

17.7%

18.4%

-0.6%

-1.3%

Ford

16.0%

14.7%

14.7%

1.3%

1.3%

Toyota

14.8%

14.5%

15.4%

0.3%

-0.6%

Chrysler Group

12.5%

12.0%

11.0%

0.5%

1.5%

Honda

9.7%

9.9%

11.1%

-0.1%

-1.4%

Hyundai/Kia

8.0%

9.1%

7.9%

-1.1%

0.1%

Nissan

7.3%

7.7%

8.0%

-0.4%

-0.7%

VW/Audi

3.6%

4.1%

3.6%

-0.5%

0.0%

Original source: Edmunds.com