United Arab Emirates Autos Report Q1 2013

Executive Summary

BMI's long held view about the UAE offering one of the most promising growth prospects for autos sales in the Middle East is beginning to play out, with new vehicle sales expected to grow by a robust 9.5% year-onyear (y-o-y) in 2012 (according to BMI forecasts). In addition to strong domestic demand conditions, we highlight increased migration as one of the potent factors driving growth in the sector in the short term. During the remainder of the forecast period to 2016, we believe that strong economic growth, coupled with improved access to auto financing will help the sector maintain average growth of 11.6% y-o-y between 2013 and 2016. At this rate, annual new vehicle sales in the country by 2016 will have increased almost 70% compared with 2011 levels, while overall vehicle ownership level will have reached 305 cars per 1,000 people.

Although the market for volume cars have undoubtedly expanded, UAE continues to prove to be an attractive destination for luxury vehicle manufacturers. November 2012 saw the launch of the world's largest Audi showroom in Dubai by locally based automobile distributor Al Nabooda Automobiles. In the same month, automobile dealer Arabian Gulf Mechanical Center (AGMC) launched its first facility in Fujairah as a part of the dealer's strategy to invest in the sales growth of BMW Group brands and offer convenient services to its customers in the Northern Emirates.

Audi claims to have sold 2,747 cars in the UAE during the first nine months of 2012, marking a 12.2 %increase over the same period in 2011. Meanwhile, strong sales growth in the UAE helped BMW achieve an impressive 15% y-o-y increase in sales, to 15,805 units across the Middle East for the first nine months of the year. UAE alone accounted for some 48% of this sales.

There is similar optimism in the commercial vehicles segment, which we believe will benefit immensely from infrastructure projects and improvements in public transport networks. Government spending, particularly aimed at the non-oil sector in Abu Dhabi, is driving construction projects. Meanwhile, we see the sharp increase in passenger and cargo traffic passing through Dubai International Airport (DIA) in recent months as a clear sign that Dubai's status as a trade, logistics and tourism hub is supporting growth in the non-oil economy. With the view to tap this growth potential, Chinese truck maker Beiqi Foton Motor, in November 2012, revealed plans to target the UAE through a distribution agreement with local dealer Liberty Automobiles.

Chapter - BMI Industry View

Chapter - SWOT

Political

Economic

Business Environment

Chapter - Industry Forecast

Table: UAE Automotive Sales, 2009-2016

Table: Other Indicators, 2009-2016

Chapter - Macroeconomic Forecasts

Economic Analysis

Household Consumption Outlook

Government Consumption Outlook

Fixed Investment Outlook

Net Export Outlook

Table: Economic Activity

Chapter - Industry Risk Reward Ratings

Industry Risk Reward Ratings

Table: Middle East And North Africa Autos Risk/Reward Ratings

Chapter - Competitive Landscape

Chapter - Company Profile

Ford

GM

Nissan

Company Profile

Chapter - Regional Overview

Regional Overview

Chapter - Global Industry Overview

Global Industry Overview

Table: Passenger Car Sales 8M12

Incentive Boom For Japan, US Powers On

UK Leads As Germany Falters

Russia And Brazil Go From Strength To Strength

Chapter - Demographic Forecast

United Arab Emirates Demographic Data

Table: United Arab Emirates' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)

Table: United Arab Emirates' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020

Table: United Arab Emirates' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020

Table: United Arab Emirates' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020

Chapter - Methodology

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Automobile Industry

Sources

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