Pakistan Autos Report Q1 2013
Report description
This quarter, BMI is downgrading its FY13 production forecasts for Pakistan’s auto industry, to a growth rate of 12.4%, from 15.9% previously. This move was triggered after Indus Motor Company (IMC) increased its non-production days (NPDs) from seven to 10 in October 2012. Indus made this decision – which will see its production capacity usage fall to just 50% – in the wake of falling sales for locally made cars, due to the significant competition from the rising number of foreign used cars now being imported into Pakistan. According to an October 2012 report in The News, foreign used cars accounted for 24% of the Pakistani sales market in 2011-2012, up from just 4% in 2010-2011.
BMI is not optimistic that passenger car production can pick up anytime soon, due to the high price of domestically produced cars, as well as poor consumer sentiment. BMI’s Country Risk team has forecasted private consumption to grow at just 3.8% across FY2013 (July 2012 to June 2013). The government's mismanagement of the economy is not helping to boost consumer confidence and anaemic demand for cars is likely to be a continued drag on production going forward. Furthermore, given recent reports that IMC has more than 3,000 units of unsold inventory, it is unlikely that the company would want to continue to add to its inventory. In such a situation, companies would rather run down stocks than add to inventory stockpiles which have the risk of rapidly losing value. Going forward, the auto component industry might also come under increasing threat, due to a lack of orders.
Table of contents
Chapter - Executive Summary
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
Pakistan Autos Industry SWOT
Pakistan Political SWOT
Pakistan Economic SWOT
Pakistan Business Environment SWOT
Chapter - Global Overview
UK Boosts Europe, But Favourites Still Outperform
Table: Passenger Car Sales 8M12
Incentive Boom For Japan, US Powers On
Chapter - Regional Overview
Japanese Autos: Outlining The Bear Case Alternatives
Chapter - China Loss Would Be Tough To Replace
Chapter - Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Business Environment Ratings – Autos Industry Asia Pacific
Chapter - Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
Expenditure Breakdown
Pakistan - Economic Activity
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Production
Table: Pakistan – Autos Production, 2010-2017
Sales
Table: Pakistan – Autos Sales, 2010-2017
Trade
Table: Pakistan – Autos Trade , 2009-2016
Market Overview
Chapter - Competitive Landscape
Passenger Cars
Table: Pakistan – Passenger Car Production And Sales By Model (CBUs)
Commercial Vehicles
Table: Pakistan – Commercial Vehicle Sales By Manufacturer (CBUs)
Chapter - Motorcycles
Table: Pakistan – Motorcycle Production And Sales By Manufacturer (CBUs)
Suppliers
Chapter - Company Monitor
Mercedes Takes Knocked-Down Route To Asia
Chapter - Company Profiles
Honda Atlas
Pak Suzuki Motor
Chapter - Country Snapshot: Pakistan Demographic Data
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Pakistan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Pakistan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Chapter - BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
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