Fuel Efficient Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Technologies Worldwide

Published: February 2012

Publisher: SBI

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Report description

Internal combustion engines (ICEs) power our cars, trucks, big rigs, trains, generator sets, ships, and a host of other applications worldwide. Unfortunately, conventional ICEs boast low efficiency – most convert only 30% of fuel into usable work, and that is under optimal conditions. When accounting for idling and sub-optimal speeds, efficiency drops to 15 to 20%. That means, for every gallon of fuel placed into the engine, only 15 to 20% of the energy in that fuel is ever transferred into usable mechanical energy under typical conditions. The remaining 80 to 85% of energy contained in the fuel is wasted – wasted on friction, losses to heat, incomplete burning, and other inefficiencies characteristic of conventional ICEs.

Spurred by the current global focus on reducing carbon emissions, promoting sustainability, and enhancing energy use efficiency, global governments and industry leaders are driving strong interest, research, and investment in improving ICE efficiency. Companies as diverse as automaking giants Ford Motor Company and Toyota, to engine manufacturers in the U.S. and Europe, to a handful of tiny Silicon Valley and MIT associated startups, are pushing the efficiency envelope of ICEs.

Generally speaking, ICE efficiency measures come in two forms: (1) specialized components, add-ons, and auxiliary systems that are worked into the basic framework design of a conventional reciprocating internal combustion engine; and (2) highly modified or novel engine designs, which seek to re-engineer the internal combustion engine from the ground up, using alternative and novel designs and processes. Measures in the former group are being more widely pursued by the existing automotive and ICE production industries, where manufacturers are focusing on incremental design updates to conventional engines. These technologies include engine deactivation, cylinder deactivation, variable valve timing and lift, turbochargers and superchargers, direct fuel injection, smaller displacement motors, hybrid and partial hybrid systems, and homogeneous charge compression ignition. These measures apply to conventional designs with relatively little modification.

The second category of ICE energy efficiency measures provides a more radical break from convention, and is being forwarded primarily by various small and mid-sized start-ups and venture capital firms, alongside breakthrough-oriented government grants and other funding mechanisms. These endeavors significantly redesign internal combustion engines, and include redesigned combustion chambers, opposing piston designs, split cycle engine designs, opposed piston/opposed cyclinder engines, and updated rotary engine designs. Proponents and investors in these technologies are focusing on the larger industry’s current lack of interest in breakthrough-oriented ICE technologies, and generating a race toward commercialization for potential new technologies.

Now is therefore an exciting time in the ICE engineering and technology industry. Mainstream industry investment in design upgrades will drive typical operating engine efficiency up from 15-20% to upwards of 30%. Some of the potential breakthrough/redesigned systems claim efficiencies upwards of 40 and 50%, although commercialization of these technologies has not yet been achieved. Accordingly, many industry insiders and durable goods manufacturers are banking on sharp increases in demand for energy efficient ICEs in the transportation and distributed generation industries worldwide. Expectations are driven by a lack of foreseeable near term technological maturity and competition from fuel cells, electric motors and batteries for transportation, and other envisioned high efficiency transport and distributed generation solutions. Thus, while the gap between demand for higher efficiency engines and available high efficiency technologies continues to widen, the ICE industry is betting on itself to fill that gap more quickly than fuel cells or other technologically immature solutions.

Demand for energy efficient ICEs has strengthened notably with the ongoing economic recovery. Following stagnation during the 2008 and 2009, efficient ICE demand rebounded strongly in 2010 and 2011, increasing from a total global value of $80 billion in 2009 to $121 billion in 2011. From 2006 through 2011, the market showed an overall increase of $70 billion, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 19%. Through 2021, the efficient ICE market is expected to expand significantly, in spite of near term softening in emerging markets. Specifically, the global market is expected to reach $401 billion by 2021, equivalent to a 10-year CAGR of nearly 13%.

The market expansion projected for efficient ICEs maintains strong roots in the automotive and light truck industries. Other key markets include ground transport, distributed power generation, marine transport, and industrial/mechanical uses, including mineral extraction, petroleum extraction, wastewater treatment, and many other industries where mechanical energy is not typically provided by electric motors. A significant advantage of these multiple drivers is that demand for efficient ICE technologies is resilient in comparison to goods that serve more limited markets. While the automotive and transport markets are highly competitive, other non-transport markets provide diverse niche opportunities that may be available to well-positioned start-ups.

Fuel Efficient Internal Combustion Engine Global Markets contains comprehensive data on the worldwide market for efficient ICE technologies (engine deactivation, cylinder deactivation, variable valve timing and lift, turbochargers and superchargers, direct fuel injection, homogeneous charge compression ignition, reduced displacement engines, hybrids and partial hybrids, split cycle engines, and opposed piston/opposed cylinder engine designs. Market data are provided for historic (2006 to 2011 Q3) and forecast (2011 Q4 to 2021) market size data in terms of the dollar value of product shipments. The report identifies key trends affecting the marketplace, along with trends driving growth, and central challenges to further market development. The report also profiles leading startups and established manufacturers of fuel efficient ICEs that are most relevant to the fuel efficient ICE industry.

Table of contents

Chapter 1 Executive Summary
Scope
Global Fuel Usage and Efficiency
Figure 1-1: Realized Transportation Energy Efficiency Savings, Canada, 1990-2008 (Barrels of Oil Equivalent)
Internal Combustion Engines and Fuel Efficient Internal Combustion Engines
Figure 1-2: United States Car and Light Truck Fuel Efficiency Standards (CAFE), 1978-2010
Existing and Anticipated Applications
Fuel Efficient ICE Systems: System Descriptions and Requirements
Table 1-1: Overview of EICE Technologies
Environmental and Social Benefits of Fuel Efficient ICEs
Figure 1-3: Percent of Fuel Consumed for EICEs versus Conventional ICEs, Per Unit Output
EICE Market Assessment
Engine Deactivation
Cylinder Deactivation
Variable Valve Timing and Lift
Turbochargers and Superchargers
Direct Fuel Injection
Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition
Reduced Displacement Engine
Hybrid and Partial Hybrid
Split Cycle Engines
Opposed Piston/Opposed Cylinder Engines
Total EICE Market
Figure 1-4: Global Market for EICE Technologies (Billion US Dollars)
Industry Trends
Conventional ICE Cost Ranges
Figure 1-5: Engine Cost Ranges ($/Horsepower)
EICE Components Cost Ranges
Table 1-2: Additive Incremental Cost Data for EICE Systems, Based on Consumer Class Vehicles in the U.S. (Percent of Total Conventional ICE Cost)
Air Emissions Reduction
Table 1-3: Incremental CO2 Emission Reduction of Specialized Components and Auxiliary Systems Implementation
Figure 1-6: Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Standards for the U.S., European Union, Japan, and China, Including Enacted and Proposed Standards.
Balance of Power (Performance) and Efficiency
Research and Development
EICE Supply Chain
Figure 1-7: EICE Technologies Supply Chain
EICE Product Promotion
Job Creation
Table 1-4: Annual Worker Productivity Rates for EICE Technologies (Units Per Full Time Equivalent Per Year)
Figure 1-8: Annualized Jobs Creation for All EICE Technologies, 2007 to 2021e (Full Time Equivalent Jobs Created or Lost Per Year)
Competitive Profiles
EICE End Users
Table 1-5: EICE End User Categories
Figure 1-9: Per Capita Disposable Income, 2000 to 2010 (US Dollars)
Summary
Figure 1-10: Global Market for EICE Technologies (Billion US Dollars)
Chapter 2 Overview of Fuel Efficient Internal Combustion Engines
Scope
Global Liquid Fuels Usage and Future Trends
Fuel Efficiency
Figure 2-1: Realized Transportation Energy Efficiency Savings, Canada, 1990-2008 (BOE)
Internal Combustion Engines: History and Applicability
Fuel Efficient Internal Combustion Engines
Figure 2-2: United States Car and Light Truck Fuel Efficiency Standards (CAFE), 1978-2010
Existing and Anticipated Applications
Figure 2-3: Annual Passenger and Commercial Vehicle Production Rates, 2000 to 2010
Transportation and Automotive Industry
Power Generation
Construction Equipment Industry
Industrial Applications
Energy Resource Extraction
Materials Extraction and Processing
Industrial Process
Other
Fuel Efficient ICE Systems: System Descriptions and Requirements
Table 2-1: Overview of EICE Technologies
Cylinder Deactivation
Variable Valve Timing and Lift
Turbochargers and Superchargers
Direct Fuel Injection
Smaller Displacement Engines
Hybrid and Partial Hybrid Systems
Novel System Designs
Split Cycle Engines
Opposed Piston/Opposed Cylinder Engines
High Efficiency Hybrid Cycle
Non-Engine Efficiency Technologies
Conventional Versus Efficient Internal Combustion Engines: Where to Draw the Line?
Environmental and Social Benefits of Fuel Efficient ICEs
Fuel Use Reduction and Cost Savings
Figure 2-4: Percent of Fuel Consumed for EICEs versus Conventional ICEs, Per Unit Output
Energy Security
Greenhouse Gas Benefits
Comparison to Other Competing Technologies
Summary
Chapter 3 Fuel Efficient Engines - Market Size and Growth
Scope
Market Assessment Methodology
Market Projections for ICE and EICE Technologies
Disclosure Regarding Data Uncertainty
Additional Market Valuation Factors
Market Origins, History, and Present Trends
The ICE Market Since 1900
Emergence and Development of the EICE Market
Public Perceptions
Recent Market Strength
Growth in EICE Demand in Other Sectors
Factors Affecting Market Size and Growth
GHG emissions reduction requirements, targets, and strategies
Fuel Efficiency
Table 3-1: Fuel Efficiency Measures
Table 3-2: Regional and National Fuel Economy and GHG Emissions Standards Summary for On-Road Vehicles
Role of alternative Fuels
Role of competing technologies
Research and development
Trends in global industrialization and development
EICE Technologies Markets
Figure 3-1: Global ICE Sales, All Industries, 2006-2011e (Millions of Units)
Review of the Global ICE Market
Figure 3-2: Global ICE Sales, Non-Vehicle End Uses, 2006-2011e (Thousands of Units)
Global Market for Specialized Components and Auxiliary Systems
Engine Deactivation
Table 3-3: Global Engine Deactivation Market, Historic and Projected, 2006 to 2021e (Millions of US Dollars)
Figure 3-3: Engine Deactivation Global Market, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)
Figure 3-4: Engine Deactivation Global Market, Non-Vehicle Breakdown, 2006 to 2021e (Millions of US Dollars)
Figure 3-5: Engine Deactivation Regional Markets, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)
Figure 3-6: Engine Deactivation Key National Markets, 2006, 2011e, and 2021e (Millions of US Dollars)
Cylinder Deactivation
Table 3-4: Global Cylinder Deactivation Market, Historic and Projected, 2006 to 2021e (Millions of US Dollars)
Figure 3-7: Cylinder Deactivation Global Market, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)
Figure 3-8: Cylinder Deactivation Global Market, Non-Vehicle Breakdown, 2006 to 2021e (Millions of US Dollars)
Figure 3-9: Cylinder Deactivation Regional Markets, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)
Figure 3-10: Cylinder Deactivation Key National Markets, 2006, 2011e, and 2021e (Millions of US Dollars)
Variable Valve Timing and Lift
Table 3-5: Global Variable Valve Timing and Lift Market, Historic and Projected, 2006 to 2021e (Millions of US Dollars)
Figure 3-11: Variable Valve Timing and Lift Global Market, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)
Figure 3-12: Variable Valve Timing and Lift Global Market, Non-Vehicle Breakdown, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)
Figure 3-13: Variable Valve Timing and Lift Regional Markets, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)
Figure 3-14: Variable Valve Timing and Lift Key National Markets, 2006, 2011e, and 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)
Turbochargers and Superchargers
Table 3-6: Global Turbochargers Market, Historic and Projected, 2006 to 2021e (Millions of US Dollars)
Figure 3-15: Turbocharger Global Market, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)
Figure 3-16: Turbocharger Global Market, Non-Vehicle Br

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