Castrol Professional Car Service and Repair Trend Tracker 2011

The Castrol Professional Car Service and Repair Trend Tracker is one of the longest running, most comprehensive aftermarket study published for the Automotive industry. The report runs to over 200 pages with 219 data tables and charts detailing where UK motorists last had a routine service carried out on their car. The report also utilises exclusive consumer data to analyse a range of mechanical servicing, maintenance and repair operations.

For the first time The Castrol Professional Car Servicing and Repair Trend Tracker 2011 includes new trends and analysis of 12 new car marques. Market share and sizing trends are now available for:

• Audi, BMW, Hyundai, Kia, Land Rover, Mazda, Mercedes-Benz, Mini, Mitsubishi, SEAT, Skoda, and Suzuki.
  

This unique aftermarket study also includes trends for:

• Citroën, Fiat Group, Ford, Honda, Nissan, Peugeot, Renault, Rover/MG, Toyota, Vauxhall, Volkswagen, Volvo, Other German, and Other Japanese.

2011 Aftermarket Report Features
The Castrol Professional Car Service and Repair Trend Tracker 2011

• Time saving - All the information you need in one place
• Crucial data - Input for your business planning
• Strategic - Market forecasts running forward to 2016
• Reliable - Primary consumer and B2B research
• Detailed - Over 200 pages and 219 data tables and colour charts
• In depth - Servicing retention trends since 1995 and market trends back to 2000

Section 1 — Preface
About Trend Tracker Limited
The Car Service and Repair Trend Tracker Reports
The Market for Car Servicing, Maintenance and Repairs
Primary and Secondary Research Sources
About Lake Research
Other Data Suppliers
Copyright Warning

Section 2 — Introduction to Castrol Professional

Section 3 — Executive Summary

Section 4 — Market Background
The UK Economy
• Liquidity crisis
• Recession
• Stagflation
• Rising fuel prices

Real World Economy
• Average earnings
• Unemployment
• Consumer confidence

Car Ownership Trends
• Households and car ownership
• Reliance on cars
• Driving licence holding

Demand for Cars in the UK
• New and used car sales
• Size of the car parc

Factors Influencing the Market for SMR
• Complex influences
• Annual mileage
• Technical sophistication
• Improving build quality
• Service intervals
• Reduced service content
• Warranties and service plans
• Service and repair labour rates

Aftermarket Legislation and Voluntary Regulation
• The European Block Exemption Regulation and EU Regulation 461/2010
• UK aftermarket consumer protection regulation
• Vehicle inspection regulation
• The impact of legislation on market competition

Section 5 — Market Size and Trends
Market Sizing
Market Size and Trends
Market Volume Trends
Value, Volume and Average Cost
• Market for routine servicing
• Market for mechanical car repairs

Spend per Car
Service and Repair Frequency
Business/Fleet SMR Value and Volume
• Business/fleet routine servicing
• Business/fleet mechanical repairs
• Business/fleet total value and volume
• Other business/fleet considerations

Labour and Parts Expenditure
Road Vehicle Testing Scheme (MOT)
Total Market Value Including MOT Testing

Section 6 — The Servicing and Repair Supply Structure
Number of Sites
• Secondary market players
Independent Garage Workshops, Fast-fits and Autocentres
• Branded independent workshops
Franchised Dealers
• Dealer groups
• Authorised repairers
• Manufacturer fast-fit programmes
• Number of franchised workshops

Market Shares by Provider

Section 7 — Servicing Retention

Introduction
Lake Research Output for 2010
• Analysis of marques with smaller car parcs
• Shortlist
• Servicing retention by car age

Summary Tables
Overall Weighted and Un-weighted Performance
Total Sample
• Weighted average servicing retention trends
• Car parc segment trends
• Four-year sample trends
• ‘Not yet serviced’ trends

Change in Total Sample Parc Average Ages
New Research on ‘Not Yet Serviced’
Where Last Serviced

Servicing Retention Trends by Marque
• Citroën
• Fiat Group
• Ford
• Honda
• Nissan
• Peugeot
• Renault
• Rover
• Toyota
• Vauxhall
• Volkswagen
• Volvo
• Other German
• Other Japanese

‘Not Yet Serviced’ Trends by Marque

Section 8 — Retention of Servicing, Maintenance and Repairs
Introduction
Basis of Repair Data
• Sample sizes
Having Work Done in the Last Month
Work Done by Vehicle Make
Where Work Done by Make of Car
• Comparison with servicing retention
Where Work Done by Age of Car
Work Done by Age of Car
What Work Done and Where
• Type of work done by provider
• Comparison of players
• Market shares of volume by provider

Lake Research Output for 2010
• Analysis of marques with smaller car parcs
• SMR retention by car age

Type of Work and SMR Retention by Make
• Citroën
• Fiat Group
• Ford
• Honda
• Nissan
• Peugeot
• Renault
• Rover
• Toyota
• Vauxhall
• Volkswagen
• Volvo
• Other German
• Other Japanese

Section 9 — Strategic Outlook and Forecasts
The UK Economy and Economic Outlook
• Effect on the market for car servicing and repairs
• New car sales
• Four-year car parc

Factors Influencing the Future of the Market
• Some basic assumptions
Service and Repair Market Forecast
Market Players
• Franchised dealer networks
• Independent garage workshops
• Fast-fit chains
• Non-franchised garage chains and autocentres
• Mobile services

Castrol Professional Insight
Market Shares by Providers Forecast

Section 10 — Appendix
Appendix — Executive Summary PowerPoint

List of Tables and Charts

SECTION 4
Figure 1 – GDP growth trends, Q1 2007 to Q1 2011
Figure 2 – Growth in GDP, inflation and investment, 2000 - 2010
Figure 3 – Retail Prices Index (RPI) trend, Jan ’04 – Jan ’11 (year on year)
Figure 4 – Fuel price trends, Jan ’03 – Jan ’11 (adjusted for inflation except £/$)
Figure 5 – Change in average earnings, Dec ‘01 – Dec ‘10
Figure 6 – Unemployment rate, 1987 to 2011
Figure 7 – Job creation, 1978 - 2008
Figure 8 – Effect of 2010 emergency budget
Figure 9 – Correlation between consumer confidence and new car sales, March ’05 – March ‘11
Figure 10 – Trends in household ownership of cars, 1999 - 2009
Figure 11 – New car registrations and used car sales, 2000 - 2010
Figure 12 – Chart of UK new car registrations (‘000) and used car sales, 2000 - 2010
Figure 13 – Number of vehicles in the car parc, Great Britain (licensed and unlicensed vehicles), 2000 - 2010
Figure 14 – Chart of number of vehicles in the car parc, 2000 - 2010
Figure 15 – Average annual distance travelled per car in the car parc, 2000 - 2010
Figure 16 – Chart of average annual distance travelled per car in the car parc, 2000 - 2010
Figure 17 – Effect of improving quality on the retail market for SMR
Figure 18 – Trends in workshop labour charge-out rates, 2000 – 2010

SECTION 5
Figure 19 – Expenditure on servicing, maintenance and repairs (private, business/fleet and DIY) current and constant prices, 2000 - 2010
Figure 20 – Chart of expenditure on servicing, maintenance and repairs (private, business/fleet and DIY) current and constant prices, 2000 - 2010
Figure 21 – Current price value and volume demand for service and repairs (private, business/fleet and DIY), 2000 - 2010
Figure 22 – Chart of current price value and volume demand for service and repairs (private, business/fleet and DIY), 2000 - 2010
Figure 23 – Current price value, volume and average cost for service and repairs (private, business/fleet and DIY), 2000 - 2010
Figure 24 – Chart of current price value, volume and average cost for service and repairs (private, business/fleet and DIY), 2000 - 2010
Figure 25 – Average annual current price spend per car (private, business/fleet and DIY), 2000 - 2010
Figure 26 – Chart of average annual current price spend per car (private, business/fleet and DIY), 2000 - 2010
Figure 27 – Frequency of routine servicing and mechanical repairs (private, business/fleet and DIY), 2000 - 2010
Figure 28 – Chart of frequency of all servicing and repairs (private, business/fleet and DIY), 2000 - 2010
Figure 29 – Current price value and volume demand for business/fleet routine servicing, 1999 - 2010
Figure 30 – Current price value and volume demand for business/fleet mechanical repairs, 1999 - 2010
Figure 31 – Current price value and volume demand for business/fleet servicing and mechanical repairs, 1999 - 2009
Figure 32 – Chart of current price value and volume demand for business/fleet servicing and mechanical repairs, 1999 - 2010
Figure 33 – Expenditure on labour and replacement parts (current prices), 2000 - 2010
Figure 34 – Chart of expenditure on labour and replacement parts (current prices), 2000 - 2010
Figure 35 – Number of cars tested and failing MOT test and reasons for failures, 2000 - 2010
Figure 36 – Estimate of total market value including MOT testing, 2000 – 2010

SECTION 6
Figure 37 – Estimated number of sites providing garage servicing, mechanical repairs and replacement parts fitting services, 2000 - 2010
Figure 38 – Chart of estimated number of outlets providing garage servicing, mechanical repairs and replacement parts fitting services, 2000 - 2010
Figure 39 – Largest 20 independent garages, fast-fits and autocentres (2010)
Figure 40 – Top ten dealer networks (number of franchise outlets), 2005 versus 2009 (year end)
Figure 41 – Largest 20 franchised dealer groups, November 2010
Figure 42 – Number of authorised repairers, December 2009 (descending order)
Figure 43 – Number of franchised workshops as at 31 December, 2000 - 2010
Figure 44 – Estimated provider shares of total SMR market including MOTs by value, 2000 – 2010

SECTION 7
Total sample -
Figure 45 – Dealer for make servicing retention, all ages (2010)
Servicing retention of marques with smaller car parcs (Audi, BMW, Hyundai, Kia, Land Rover, Mazda, Mercedes-Benz, Mini, Mitsubishi, SEAT, Skoda, and Suzuki) -
Figure 46 – Servicing retention and ‘not yet serviced’, all ages (2010)
Figure 47 – Servicing retention and ‘not yet serviced’, <4 years (2010)
Figure 48 – Servicing retention and ‘not yet serviced’, 4 – 6 years (2010)
Figure 49 – Servicing retention and ‘not yet serviced’, 7 – 9 years (2010)
Figure 50 – Servicing retention and ‘not yet serviced’, 10+ years (2010)
Figure 51 – Servicing retention by provider by age of car (2010, yearly intervals)
Servicing retention of Trend Tracker’s traditional selection of 14 marques -
Figure 52 – Servicing retention and ‘not yet serviced’, all ages (2010)
Figure 53 – Servicing retention and ‘not yet serviced’, <4 years (2010)
Figure 54 – Servicing retention and ‘not yet serviced’, 4 – 6 years (2010)
Figure 55 – Servicing retention and ‘not yet serviced’, 7 – 9 years (2010)
Figure 56 – Servicing retention and ‘not yet serviced’, 10+ years (2010)
Total sample -
Figure 57 – Dealer for make, 2010 (average % of individual marque performances)
Figure 58 – Other garage or service station, 2010 (average % of individual marque performance)
Figure 59 – Self or unpaid source (DIY), 2010 (average % of individual marque performance)
Figure 60 – ‘not yet serviced’, 2010 (average % of individual marque performance)
Figure 61 – Trend in weighted average servicing retention, total sample
Figure 62 – Car parc segment trends, 1995 (dotted lines) v 2010
Figure 63 – Trend in weighted average servicing retention, < 4 Year Sample
Figure 64 – Trend in weighted average servicing retention, ‘not yet serviced’ sample
Figure 65 – Trend in weighted average age in years
Figure 66 – Trend in average age by service sector, 1996 - 2010
Figure 67 – Intended provider of routine service by age, 2010
Figure 68 – Reason for choosing intended provider of routine service, 2010
Servicing retention of Trend Tracker’s traditional selection of 14 marques, by marque -
Figure 69 – 2010 servicing retention by service source and age of vehicle, Citroën
Figure 70 – Franchised dealer servicing retention trend, Citroën
Figure 71 – Other garage servicing retention trend, Citroën
Figure 72 – DIY trend, Citroën
Figure 73 – 2010 servicing retention by service source and age of vehicle, Fiat Group
Figure 74 – Franchised dealer servicing retention trend, Fiat Group
Figure 75 – Other garage servicing retention trend, Fiat Group
Figure 76 – DIY trend, Fiat Group
Figure 77 – 2010 servicing retention by service source and age of vehicle, Ford
Figure 78 – Franchised dealer servicing retention trend, Ford
Figure 79 – Other garage servicing retention trend, Ford
Figure 80 – DIY trend, Ford
Figure 81 – 2010 servicing retention by service source and age of vehicle, Honda
Figure 82 – Franchised dealer servicing retention trend, Honda
Figure 83 – Other garage servicing retention trend, Honda
Figure 84 – DIY trend, Honda
Figure 85 – 2010 servicing retention by service source and age of vehicle, Nissan
Figure 86 – Franchised dealer servicing retention trend, Nissan
Figure 87 – Other garage servicing retention trend, Nissan
Figure 88 – DIY trend, Nissan
Figure 89 – 2010 servicing retention by service source and age of vehicle, Peugeot
Figure 90 – Franchised dealer servicing retention trend, Peugeot
Figure 91 – Other garage servicing retention trend, Peugeot
Figure 92 – DIY trend, Peugeot
Figure 93 – 2010 servicing retention by service source and age of vehicle, Renault
Figure 94 – Franchised dealer servicing retention trend, Renault
Figure 95 – Other garage servicing retention trend, Renault
Figure 96 – DIY trend, Renault
Figure 97 – 2010 servicing retention by service source and age of vehicle, Rover/MG
Figure 98 – Franchised dealer servicing retention trend, Rover/MG
Figure 99 – Other garage servicing retention trend, Rover/MG
Figure 100 – DIY trend, Rover/MG
Figure 101 – 2010 servicing retention by service source and age of vehicle, Toyota
Figure 102 – Franchised dealer servicing retention trend, Toyota
Figure 103 – Other garage servicing retention trend, Toyota
Figure 104 – DIY trend, Toyota
Figure 105 – 2010 servicing retention by service source and age of vehicle, Vauxhall
Figure 106 – Franchised dealer servicing retention trend, Vauxhall
Figure 107 – Other garage servicing retention trend, Vauxhall
Figure 108 – DIY trend, Vauxhall
Figure 109 – 2010 servicing retention by service source and age of vehicle, Volkswagen
Figure 110 – Franchised dealer servicing retention trend, Volkswagen
Figure 111 – Other garage servicing retention trend, Volkswagen
Figure 112 – DIY trend, Volkswagen
Figure 113 – 2010 servicing retention by service source and age of vehicle, Volvo
Figure 114 – Franchised dealer servicing retention trend, Volvo
Figure 115 – Other garage servicing retention trend, Volvo
Figure 116 – DIY trend, Volvo
Figure 117 – 2010 servicing retention by service source and age of vehicle, Other German
Figure 118 – Franchised dealer servicing retention trend, Other German
Figure 119 – Other garage servicing retention trend, Other German
Figure 120 – DIY trend, Other German
Figure 121 – 2010 servicing retention by service source and age of vehicle, Other Japanese
Figure 122 – Franchised dealer servicing retention trend, Other Japanese
Figure 123 – Other garage servicing retention trend, Other Japanese
Figure 124 – DIY trend, Other Japanese
‘Not yet serviced’ trend charts for Trend Tracker’s traditional selection of 14 marques, by marque -
Figure 125 – Citroën
Figure 126 – Fiat Group
Figure 127 – Ford
Figure 128 – Honda
Figure 129 – Nissan
Figure 130 – Peugeot
Figure 131 – Renault
Figure 132 – Rover/MG
Figure 133 – Toyota
Figure 134 – Vauxhall
Figure 135 – Volkswagen
Figure 136 – Volvo
Figure 137 – Other German
Figure 138 – Other Japanese

SECTION 8
Total sample -
Figure 139 – Trends in work done in last month
Figure 140 – Type of work done in last three months by marque, 2010
Figure 141 – Work carried out in last three months, 2010
Figure 142 – Where work done in last three months by make of car, 2010 (service, MOT and repairs combined)
Figure 143 – Comparison of ‘dealer for make’ servicing retention and SMR retention, 2010
Figure 144 – Where work carried out in last three months by age of vehicle, 2010
Figure 145 – Chart of where work carried out in last three months by age of vehicle, 2010
Figure 146 – Type of work carried out in last three months by age of vehicle, 2010
Figure 147 – Chart of type of work carried out in last three months by age of vehicle, 2010 (re-based to 100%)
Figure 148 – What work done and where in last three months, 2010
Figure 149 – Chart of what work done by type of outlet in last three months, 2010 (re-based to 100%)
Figure 150 – Type of work done by franchised dealers (‘dealer for make’ plus ‘dealer for other make’), 2010 (re-based to 100%)
Figure 151 – Type of work done by independent garages, 2010 (re-based to 100%)
Figure 152 – Type of work done by fast-fit centres, 2010 (re-based to 100%)
Figure 153 – Type of work done DIY, 2010 (re-based to 100%)
Figure 154 – Where work carried out in last three months by provider, 2010 (re-based to 100% for each category)
Figure 155 – Provider trends for SMR, 2005-2010
Servicing retention of marques with smaller car parcs (Audi, BMW, Hyundai, Kia, Land Rover,
Mazda, Mercedes-Benz, Mini, Mitsubishi, SEAT, Skoda, and Suzuki) -
Figure 156 – Having work done in last three months, 2010 – marques with smaller car parcs
Figure 157 – Where work done in last three months by make of car, 2010 (service, MOT and repairs combined) – marques with smaller car parcs
Total sample -
Figure 158 – Retention of SMR by provider by age of car (2010)
SMR retention of Trend Tracker’s traditional selection of 14 marques, by marque -
Figure 159 – Comparison of work done on Citroën cars and all-makes sample (2010)
Figure 160 – Trend in types of work done, Citroën
Figure 161 – Comparison of where work done on Citroën cars and all-makes sample (2010)
Figure 162 – Trend in where work done, Citroën
Figure 163 – Comparison of work done on Fiat Group cars and all-makes sample (2010)
Figure 164 – Trend in types of work done, Fiat Group
Figure 165 – Comparison of where work done on Fiat Group cars and all-makes sample (2010)
Figure 166 – Trend in where work done, Fiat Group
Figure 167 – Comparison of work done on Ford cars and all-makes sample (2010)
Figure 168 – Trend in types of work done, Ford
Figure 169 – Comparison of where work done on Ford cars and all-makes sample (2010)
Figure 170 – Trend in where work done, Ford
Figure 171 – Comparison of work done on Honda cars and all-makes sample (2010)
Figure 172 – Trend in types of work done, Honda
Figure 173 – Comparison of where work done on Honda cars and all-makes sample (2010)
Figure 174 – Trend in where work done, Honda
Figure 175 – Comparison of work done on Nissan cars and all-makes sample (2010)
Figure 176 – Trend in types of work done, Nissan
Figure 177 – Comparison of where work done on Nissan cars and all-makes sample (2010)
Figure 178 – Trend in where work done, Nissan
Figure 179 – Comparison of work done on Peugeot cars and all-makes sample (2010)
Figure 180 – Trend in types of work done, Peugeot
Figure 181 – Comparison of where work done on Peugeot cars and all-makes sample (2010)
Figure 182 – Trend in where work done, Peugeot
Figure 183 – Comparison of work done on Renault cars and all-makes sample (2010)
Figure 184 – Trend in types of work done, Renault
Figure 185 – Comparison of where work done on Renault cars and all-makes sample (2010)
Figure 186 – Trend in where work done, Renault
Figure 187 – Comparison of work done on Rover/MG cars and all-makes sample (2010)
Figure 188 – Trend in types of work done, Rover/MG
Figure 189 – Comparison of where work done on Rover cars/MG and all-makes sample (2010)
Figure 190 – Trend in where work done, Rover/MG
Figure 191 – Comparison of work done on Toyota cars and all-makes sample (2010)
Figure 192 – Trend in types of work done, Toyota
Figure 193 – Comparison of where work done on Toyota cars and all-makes sample (2010)
Figure 194 – Trend in where work done, Toyota
Figure 195 – Comparison of work done on Vauxhall cars and all-makes sample (2010)
Figure 196 – Trend in types of work done, Vauxhall
Figure 197 – Comparison of where work done on Vauxhall cars and all-makes sample (2010)
Figure 198 – Trend in where work done, Vauxhall
Figure 199 – Comparison of work done on Volkswagen cars and all-makes sample (2010)
Figure 200 – Trend in types of work done, Volkswagen
Figure 201 – Comparison of where work done on Volkswagen cars and all-makes sample (2010)
Figure 202 – Trend in where work done, Volkswagen
Figure 203 – Comparison of work done on Volvo cars and all-makes sample (2010)
Figure 204 – Trend in types of work done, Volvo
Figure 205 – Comparison of where work done on Volvo cars and all-makes sample (2010)
Figure 206 – Trend in where work done, Volvo
Figure 207 – Comparison of work done on Other German cars and all-makes sample (2010)
Figure 208 – Trend in types of work done, Other German
Figure 209 – Comparison of where work done on Other German cars and all-makes sample (2010)
Figure 210 – Trend in where work done, Other German
Figure 211 – Comparison of work done on Other Japanese cars and all-makes sample (2010)
Figure 212 – Trend in types of work done, Other Japanese
Figure 213 – Comparison of where work done on Other Japanese cars and all-makes sample (2010)
Figure 214 – Trend in where work done, Other Japanese

SECTION 9
Figure 215 – New car registrations from 1964 and forecast to 2016
Figure 216 – Changes in four-year car parc from 1992 and forecast to 2016
Figure 217 – Forecast of car service and repair demand (retail + fleet) by volume and value at constant January 2011 prices, 2011 - 2016
Figure 218 – Forecast number of sites providing servicing, maintenance and repair, 2011 - 2016
Figure 219 – Estimated provider shares of total SMR market (including MOTs by value), 2000 - 2016

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