Algeria Autos Report Q1 2013
Report description
The Algerian new car sales market continues to go from strength to strength. Although no official figures for 2012 have yet been released by the local Association des Concessionaires Automobiles d'Algerie (ACAA), media reports have highlighted strong H112 sales figures from across the industry.
According to a July 2012 report in the French language Motors Magazine, new vehicle sales were up by 42.74% over the first half of 2012, to reach 212,997 units. For the month of June alone, sales were up by 41.47% y-o-y, at 38,502 units, boding well for continued strength in the new sales market across the balance of the year.
Vehicle imports are also on the increase, with the El Watan newspaper reporting in July 2012 that 263,787 vehicles were imported into Algeria during H112, according to the Customs Department, up by 49.1% on the previous year. The value of these auto imports totalled DZD233.55bn, up from DZD157.16bn for the same period in 2011. Of this total, 248,533 vehicles were imported by the 40 dealerships present in the Algerian market, itself representing an increase of 51.6% y-o-y. A 17.2 %increase was recorded in the number of cars imported by individuals, which reached 14,954 units. Against this backdrop, BMI believes the time is right to make an upwards revision to our 2012 new car sales forecast for Algeria. We are now targeting a 40% increase in new car sales, to reach 393,124 units. Continuing to support sentiment at the current time is the 20% increase in the public sector minimum wage that occurred in 2011, which boosted household spending power, as well as a strengthening economy (BMI's macroeconomic team recently revised up its 2012 GDP forecast to 3.5%, with growth of 4.0% expected in 2013). The country's key tourism and agriculture sectors are also performing well. Looking at manufacturers, Renault remains the dominant player in Algeria, selling 45,092 units over H112, an increase of 39.4% y-o-y. In second place is Peugeot, which recorded an even stronger annual sales growth rate, of 58.6%, to reach 29,874 units. Behind the two French automakers is Korean automaker Hyundai, which delivered 23,696 units (excluding trucks, buses and construction equipment), according to Motors Magazine - equivalent to a 16.5% increase y-o-y.
Further underlining BMI's upbeat sentiment towards Algeria at the present time, it appears that final agreement will soon be reached between Renault and the government on the long-awaited establishment of a sizeable domestic production capability. Speaking at the end of September 2012, Renault CEO Carlos Ghosn said that he hoped the project would be finalised soon and that 'negotiations are progressing well'. In May 2012, the two sides signed a framework agreement for the construction of a new car plant in Algeria and the establishment of a joint venture, which will reportedly be 51%-owned by the state-run National Society of Commercial Vehicles (SNVI) and the National Investment Fund (FNI), and 49%-owned by Renault. Once the deal is signed, it is believed that Renault can start producing cars within 14 months. The agreement provides for the initial production of 75,000 cars per year, rising to 150,000 cars per year over the medium term. A proportion of this production will then be exported.
Table of contents
Chapter - Executive Summary
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
Algeria Autos Industry SWOT
Algeria Political SWOT
Algeria Economic SWOT
Algeria Business Environment SWOT
Chapter - Global Overview
UK Boosts Europe, But Favourites Still Outperform
Table: Passenger Car Sales 8M12
Incentive Boom For Japan, US Powers On
Chapter - Regional Overview
Chapter - Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
GCC States Still Dominant
Table: Middle East And North Africa Autos Risk/Reward Ratings
Chapter - Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
Table: Algeria – Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Sales
Table: Algeria Autos Sales, 2010-2017
Production
Chapter - Competitive Landscape
Passenger Cars
Table: Renault Market Share By Country
Table: Algeria Car Sales By Brand 2011
Commercial Vehicles
Chapter - Company Monitor
Record BMW Sales Reflect BMI Views
Chapter - Company Profiles
Peugeot
Toyota Motor
Renault Algérie
Hyundai Motor
Chapter - Algeria Demographic Outlook
Table: Algeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Algeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Algeria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Algeria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Chapter - BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Forecasting Model
Sources
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