This is just-auto's first report focusing on this topic of global importance, future fuels. In it we take a look at auto fuel requirements and examine the currently-available fuels for road vehicle propulsion - the gases, liquid hydrocarbons, and their alternatives - as well as their likely developments, forecasted out to 2020.

Any attempt to map the future of vehicle fuels must be centered on a set of key questions, namely:

• How much fuel will be needed for the vehicle fleet to 2020?
• How much fuel is, and will be, available to meet this need?
• How urgent is the need to counter the threat of global warming?
• What means are available to enable us to counter this threat (and by implication, also to counter the threat of crude oil exhaustion)?
• How quickly can such means be introduced?

Introduction - We provide an overview of the report, take a look at the concern surrounding global warming, and the inevitability of the exhaustion of crude oil at some point.

Chapter 1: Present and future fuel needs - We take a look at the current patterns of fuel use, and future needs. The chapter includes tables showing the existing and forecasted worldwide requirement for road vehicle fuel to 2020 (in millions of barrels oil equivalent) per day for petrol and diesel, plus, with modern, high-technology vehicle engines (and their emission control systems) requiring high-quality fuel in order to perform properly, we consider the quality requirements of future fuels.

Chapter 2: Present and future vehicle fuel supplies - Vehicles are unique in their need for fuels that are compatible with mobility. With very few exceptions, vehicles must carry their energy source on board, and that source should therefore provide the highest practical energy density while at the same time being reasonably safe.

In this chapter, we examine the current availability of each of the existing options, such as electric vehicles, crude oil derivatives, synthetic hydrocarbons, biofuels and gas alternatives, for example LPG. We also provide tables showing worldwide road vehicle fuel usage by source, 2005-2020 (% share and m barrels per day), and the likely ability of producers to ramp up their output to meet the levels of demand.

Chapter 3: Global warming - the urgency - At present there is no definitive answer to how urgent the need to counter global warming is, although the UN scientific report published ahead of the December 2007 Bali Climate Change Convention painted an alarming picture in many respects, not least in its suggestion that some climatic changes might be irreversible once they had occurred. This chapter discusses general sustainable energy considerations, and the current challenge to devise a vehicle fuels strategy which contributes to this aim.

Chapter 4: Global warming - the counter strategies - There are two possible fuel strategies to address the dangers of global warming. The first is to use fuels containing less (or no) carbon, while the second is to use fuels whose carbon content forms part of the carbon cycle rather than having been extracted from fossil reserves.

The long-term prospects for the fuels of the future - which must form a major part of any strategy, not only for continued mobility but also to help counter global warming - are examined in this chapter, we look in-depth at:

• First-generation biofuels: the alcohols and the methyl-esters
• Second-generation biofuels: Butanol, Second-generation biodiesel, Biosynthetic hydrocarbons, LNG and Hydrogen.

We also discuss the biofuels which may enable road vehicles to continue operating entirely within the short-term carbon cycle, without adding to the greenhouse effect through the further use of fossil carbon.

Chapter 5: Conclusions - In this last chapter we discuss the speed with which such fuels may replace the fossil fuels in vehicle use and summarise the answers to the five key questions set out at the top of the page.

Introduction
The inevitability of exhaustion
…and concern about global warming
The key questions

Chapter 1 Present and future fuel needs
Current patterns of fuel use
Future fuel needs
Fuel quality considerations

Chapter 2 Present and future vehicle fuel supplies
Energy for mobility
The crude oil derivatives
Synthetic hydrocarbons
Biofuels
Ethanol – the present situation
FAME – the present situation
Biofuel production: doubts on expansion
The gas alternatives
LPG – the present situation
CNG – the present situation
Electric vehicles – the present situation

Chapter 3 Global warming – the urgency
The challenge – real or imaginary?
Practical timescales
Sustainable energy: general considerations
Meeting vehicular needs

Chapter 4 Global warming – the counter-strategies
Future alternative fuels
First-generation biofuels
The alcohols
The methyl esters
Second-generation biofuels
Butanol
Second-generation biodiesel
Biosynthetic hydrocarbons
LNG
Hydrogen
Problems of storage
Manufacture and economics
Bio-hydrogen approaches
Advanced vehicle technologies
Advanced powertrain concepts
Hybrid powertrains
Fuel cell power units
‘Intelligent' traffic management
CO2 sequestration

Chapter 5 Conclusions
The detailed answers
How much fuel will be needed for the vehicle fleet to 2020?
How much fuel is, and will be, available to meet this need?
How urgent is the need to counter the threat of global warming?
What means are available to enable us to counter this threat (and by implication, also to counter the threat of crude oil exhaustion)? How quickly can such means be introduced?
Final conclusions

List of figures
Figure 1: Fuel production processes from feedstock to final product
Figure 2: The carbon cycle

List of tables
Table 1: Worldwide road vehicle fuel requirement by type, 2005-2020 (% share and m barrels per day)
Table 2: Worldwide road vehicle fuel usage by source, 2005-2020 (% share and m barrels per day)