The cracks are beginning to appear in the US car market. Car sales in October were 3.3% down on last year at 692,787 from 716,424. That took growth for the first ten months to 7.1% at 7,422,823 from 6,929,228. The slight downturn lowered the annualised selling rate to 8.68 million from 8.7 million in September. That was only the second downturn in eleven months and whether or not it will be followed by drops sufficient to bring the market to meet our full-year forecast of 8.6 million remains to be seen. The market will have to drop by 6.1% over the closing two months for the forecast to be spot on. To quite a degree the full-year total will depend more on the vehicle manufacturers than on the car buying public. Incentives will keep the market higher than our prediction, but they will only leave a bigger vacuum for next year when we believe sales will fall further, probably to around 8.25 million.